Dan Dixon Remax Realtor/Broker
Veteran broker Dan Dixon shares his 20-year journey through lending, appraisal, and real estate, offering deep insights into Utah's shifting market dynamics.
Dan Dixon
Remax Associates Realtor and Broker
At a Glance
Archive Scoring
Introduction
Real estate is more than just transactions; it is about the evolution of a career built on trust and a deep understanding of the numbers. Dan Dixon’s journey highlights how a childhood dream of being an agent transformed into a sophisticated career as a broker. By navigating the worlds of appraisal and lending before settling into sales, Dan provides a 360-degree view of the homeownership process that few can match. This episode is a reflection on a decade-long partnership between two industry veterans who have seen the market at its highest highs and lowest lows. The conversation shifts from personal anecdotes about starting in small cubicles to high-level analysis of Utah’s population explosion. Dan challenges the common narrative that inventory is the only problem, instead pointing to a massive influx of people seeking the Utah lifestyle as a primary driver of price. His perspective is grounded in the reality of today’s interest rate climate, offering a calm, seasoned voice for those feeling the pressure of market volatility. Ultimately, Dan emphasizes the social and economic importance of homeownership, viewing it as a cornerstone of community stability. He explores how government policy has historically favored the owner and why that trajectory is likely to continue despite temporary economic headwinds.
Episode Overview
A detailed look at the topics, people, and context of this conversation.
Join host Ryan as he welcomes Dan Dixon, a Remax Associates Realtor and Broker with over two decades of experience in the industry. Dan brings a unique perspective to the table, having worked as a lender and an appraiser before becoming a high-volume broker. The episode explores Dan's transition from an aspiring law student to a real estate leader, highlighting the moments that reshaped his career path and his early motivations to help people buy their first homes. The two discuss their shared history, tracing their professional relationship back over a decade of growth and mutual trust. They dive deep into the current complexities of the Utah real estate market, analyzing the relationship between static housing inventory and a rapidly growing population. The discussion covers interest rate shifts, the impact of the tech sector on local wages, and the four main factors that drive real estate value. The tone is reflective and professional, offering listeners a masterclass in local market mechanics and the long-term benefits of owning property.
Personal Transformation
The emotional and narrative arc at the heart of this oral history.
Dan Dixon's journey illustrates a shift from childhood curiosity about 'agency' to a sophisticated understanding of real estate as a tool for financial stability. Initially considering a career in law, Dan pivoted to real estate after observing the financial and lifestyle constraints of young attorneys. Over twenty years, he evolved from a loan officer and appraiser to a brokerage owner, finding his greatest fulfillment in helping families transition from renting to owning their first homes.
Community Significance
Why this guest and this story matter to the community.
This episode provides a vital case study for homebuyers in high-growth regions like Utah. Dan moves the conversation beyond simple supply-and-demand metrics, explaining how population growth and economic diversification (shifting from Geneva Steel to 'Silicon Slopes' tech) fundamentally alter housing accessibility. It teaches future buyers that 'waiting for a crash' is often a flawed strategy when the underlying demographic data shows a massive, sustained influx of new residents.
Furthermore, the discussion emphasizes the importance of professional trust and networking. By highlighting the collaborative relationship between a broker and a lender, the episode demonstrates how a solid professional team can mitigate the stresses of a volatile market, providing a roadmap for buyers to navigate complex financial landscapes with confidence.
"it sounded fun to help people buy their first home that's something that was like that for whatever reason there was appeal even when i was 10 and it still is fun it's still great i love it"
— Dan Dixon · 4:59
Key Themes & Life Lessons
The ideas that run beneath the stories — and what they teach about community, leadership, and belonging.
Market Cycle Fluctuations
Real Estate Career Evolution
Utah Housing Inventory and Population Growth
Mortgage Interest Rate Impacts
Brokerage Leadership and Management
Investment Property Strategies
Economic Diversification in Utah
Government Housing Policy and Incentives
Wisdom & Life Lessons
Real estate is built on four pillars: appreciation, leverage, tax benefits, and cash flow. Dan emphasizes that government policies are structurally designed to favor homeowners and investors, making real estate a uniquely protected asset class. Emotionally, he advises that a home is more than an investment; it is a 'neighborhood and a roof,' providing social stability that transcends market volatility.
Key Takeaways
- 1Transitioning from renting to owning requires a deep understanding of market timing and the long-term nature of interest rate cycles.
- 2Utah's inventory crisis is primarily driven by massive population growth exceeding stagnant supply levels over the last decade.
- 3A realtor with a background in lending and appraisal offers a competitive edge in complex negotiations and valuations.
- 4Rapid interest rate increases in 2022 significantly reduced buyer purchasing power, forcing a recalibration of market expectations.
- 5Utah's economic resilience is bolstered by its transition from a single-industry state to a highly diverse tech and tourism hub.
- 6Historical government interventions like the 2010 tax credit demonstrate that policy often shifts to incentivize buyers during economic slowdowns.
- 7Successful real estate leadership involves facilitating discussions among high-performing professionals rather than top-down management.
Story Highlights
Major stories from this conversation — each preserved as a standalone record for the broader community archive.
Dan Dixon recounts the moment Ryan Harding, then a new loan officer, knocked on his cubicle door when Dan was a brand new agent. At the time, they were both 'schmucks' just starting out, but that simple act of networking led to a decade-long professional relationship. This partnership expanded from simple referrals to Ryan helping Dan secure investment properties and building a deep level of trust that still benefits their clients today.
Emotional Significance
It highlights the nostalgia of early career struggles and the deep loyalty that forms when professionals grow up in the industry together.
Why This Matters
In a transactional industry like real estate, the story proves that long-term success is built on the quality of your professional network rather than just individual sales.
Life Lesson
Cold outreach and building authentic relationships in the early days can create a foundation for a career-long support system.
Transformation
Transformation from two unproven, young professionals to established industry leaders who rely on a decade of shared history.
What It Reveals About Dan Dixon
Dan values long-term loyalty and remembers the people who were with him when he had nothing.
What It Reveals About the Community
The local real estate community is tight-knit and rewards those who take the initiative to build personal bonds.
Community Value Preserved
The importance of professional mentorship and collaborative growth.
For future generations: It demonstrates that even in a digital world, personal outreach and 'knocking on doors' remains the most effective way to build a legacy.
Dan shares a childhood memory of telling his mother in the fourth grade that he wanted to be either an FBI agent or a real estate agent. While he admits he initially liked the idea of carrying a gun like an 'agent,' he specifically told her that he wanted to help people buy their first home. This vision was remarkable because his parents had owned the same house for 27 years, and he didn't even know any realtors growing up.
After college, Dan was studying for the LSAT to become an attorney, despite his dyslexia making reading-heavy work difficult. While working a summer job doing debt consolidation loans, he processed loans for two recent law school graduates who were only earning $42,000 a year. Realizing that the immense struggle of law school didn't necessarily lead to the financial freedom he sought, he pivoted to real estate, where he found he could help people more directly while enjoying the work.
Dan describes the jarring experience of the early 2022 interest rate spike. He recounts how buyers who were pre-approved for $900,000 to $1 million homes were suddenly, almost overnight, limited to a $750,000 budget due to the doubling of interest rates. This forced a massive readjustment of expectations and demonstrated how quickly the 'buying power' of the average family can be eroded by macro-economic shifts.
Dan reflects on how Utah's economy has transformed from a few major employers like Geneva Steel and BYU to one of the most diverse economies in the U.S. He points out that while home prices seem high, the 'tech hub' evolution means many young professionals are starting at six-figure salaries—a massive jump from the $42,000 starting salaries he saw just two decades ago. This economic diversity provides a 'floor' for home prices that didn't exist in the past.
Dan recalls purchasing his own home in 2010 during the fallout of the Great Recession. He utilized the 'Obama Tax Credit,' an $8,000 incentive designed to jumpstart the economy through homeownership. He uses this story to illustrate that the government views homeownership as a social good that creates jobs and stable communities, and he predicts similar incentives will return as the current market cools.
"get into the home you want that you love at some point you're going to be able to refinance this it'll get cheaper"
— Dan Dixon · 23:48
Historical Preservation & Legacy
What this interview preserves about community history, cultural legacy, and intergenerational knowledge.
Preservation Value: High
This episode is an essential archive of a specific market pivot, combining expert analysis of lending, appraisal, and brokerage. It offers timeless advice on networking and market fundamentals that will remain relevant for any homebuyer facing a high-interest-rate environment.
Why This Episode Matters Historically
Historically, this episode captures a critical turning point in the post-pandemic housing market (early 2022) when interest rates doubled in a single quarter. It documents the transition from the era of 'cheap money' (3% rates) to a new reality (5.5%+), capturing the immediate psychological and financial shock felt by buyers. It serves as a primary source for understanding how real estate professionals recalibrated their strategies during a period of extreme economic flux. The episode also records the specific economic evolution of Utah, detailing its transformation into one of the most diverse economies in the United States. By preserving data on net migration and domestic population growth, it provides historical context for why housing prices in the Intermountain West decoupled from national averages during the early 2020s.
What Future Generations May Learn
Future generations will learn the importance of distinguishing between a cyclical market correction and a structural housing shortage. Dan’s analysis shows that while interest rates fluctuate, the fundamental need for housing driven by population growth remains the primary lever of value. This perspective offers a lesson in financial resilience, encouraging buyers to look past short-term headlines and focus on the long-term utility and equity-building power of real estate. Additionally, the episode highlights the lasting impact of economic 'PTSD.' Future homebuyers can observe how the memory of the 2008 Great Recession influenced market behavior over a decade later, causing hesitation even when economic indicators were vastly different. This serves as a psychological lesson on how past trauma can color future financial decisions, stressing the need for data-driven action over emotion.
Community Memory Preserved
The episode preserves the transition of the Utah Valley from an industrial, blue-collar hub to a tech-centric, diversified economy. It captures the specific local sentiment of 'brainwashing' children to stay in the state, reflecting a unique cultural emphasis on family proximity that drives domestic housing demand regardless of outside migration.
Local Knowledge Preserved
Detailed insights into the Utah housing inventory are preserved, specifically the 'hockey stick' trend of sales prices vs. the static nature of inventory listings. The episode also explains the 'Four Plex Investment Group' (FPIG) model and the role of tech companies like Adobe and Domo in setting a new wage floor for the local community.
Intergenerational Lessons
The primary lesson for the next generation is the strategy of 'marrying the house and dating the rate.' Dan and Ryan explain that while payments may be higher initially, the ability to refinance later—combined with the inevitable appreciation of a home in a high-demand area—makes entering the market early a superior long-term strategy compared to renting.
Community & Cultural Insights
The episode reveals a 'loyalist' culture within the local real estate industry, where long-term professional relationships (some spanning decades) are the primary currency for getting deals accepted in a competitive market. It also highlights the 'large family' culture of Utah as a significant, often overlooked driver of housing demand.
Historical Context
The transcript provides a comparative analysis between the 2007-2008 Great Recession and the market conditions of 2022. It highlights how the industry moved from a period of high-risk lending (125% LTV HELOCs) to a more regulated environment, while noting the psychological impact 'PTSD' that the 2008 crash left on current homeowners. The discussion also touches upon the 2010 Obama Tax Credit as a precedent for government intervention in housing. Furthermore, it charts the evolution of Utah's economy. Once reliant on heavy industry like Geneva Steel and institutions like BYU, the state has transformed into a diverse tech powerhouse featuring companies like Adobe and Domo. This shift is presented as a primary driver for the sustained housing demand despite rising interest rates and recessionary fears.
Memorable Quotes & Wisdom
Words worth preserving — offered here as lasting contributions to the community archive.
"it sounded fun to help people buy their first home that's something that was like that for whatever reason there was appeal even when i was 10 and it still is fun it's still great i love it"
— Dan Dixon
4:59
Builds trust with first-time buyers by showing the agent's long-standing commitment to the path to homeownership.
Shows the intrinsic motivation and passion required to sustain a 20-year career in real estate.
"there's just a lot of trust so to me like in an industry that's more valuable than anything else"
— Dan Dixon
3:09
Reassures listeners that choosing the right team of professionals is the most important part of the process.
Highlights that real estate transactions are based on relationships and reliability, not just numbers.
"when you have a good solid network within our industry you know you're able to work with good people... i knew that deal was going to close"
— Dan Dixon
8:28
Emphasizes the importance of 'preferred partners' in the homebuying ecosystem.
Explains how behind-the-scenes professional relationships ensure a smooth closing for the buyer.
"folks' buying power has taken a quite a bit of a hit folks have had to readjust their budget readjust their expectations"
— Dan Dixon
15:48
Provides a realistic view of current market challenges for local renters looking to buy.
Addresses the reality of fluctuating interest rates and how they affect what a buyer can afford.
"if inventory is relatively static and we have a million more people... we don't have enough inventory we don't have enough supply because we have a million more people"
— Dan Dixon
20:14
Helps potential buyers understand the local supply and demand dynamics in Utah.
Uses data to explain why housing prices remain high despite economic shifts.
"get into the home you want that you love at some point you're going to be able to refinance this it'll get cheaper"
— Dan Dixon
23:48
Encourages renters not to wait for perfect rates if they find the right home now.
Introduces the 'marry the house, date the rate' strategy for long-term homeownership.
"i think there is sustainability at the current price point... the question is are we in a jobs level are we in an income level"
— Dan Dixon
27:22
Provides economic context for buyers worried about a potential market crash.
Analyzes whether the current market is a bubble or supported by actual income and job growth.
"this action is good for the economy it creates jobs and you know gives people a roof over their head it creates communities and neighborhoods"
— Dan Dixon
29:29
Validates the decision to own a home as a benefit to the entire local community.
Connects individual home purchases to the broader health of society and the economy.
"i don't see myself as the guy in charge that knows all about real estate i see myself more as a ring leader that leads a discussion"
— Dan Dixon
13:16
Shows the value of diverse expertise within a real estate team.
Illustrates a humble and collaborative leadership style within the real estate brokerage.
"uncle sam has said it is good to own real estate... it creates communities and neighborhoods and the feeling of the feeling that we want"
— Dan Dixon
28:31
Highlights the financial benefits (tax deductions) available to homeowners.
Discusses how government policy and tax incentives are designed to encourage homeownership.
Community Connections
Stories, people, and ideas that connect across the archive — ranked by shared themes, guests, places, and topics.
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Related Quotes
(4)"If I could go back and tell younger Ammon one thing, it was: just buy that real estate."
— Ammon Childs
"Real estate is get rich slowly."
— Ryan Harding
"Are you looking to save money, or are you looking to make money?"
— Ammon Childs
"You're not paying your mortgage. You're paying someone's mortgage."
— Naomi McClure
Related Themes
(2)Civic Leadership
Profiles of the people who shaped local government, planning, and policy in Lehi — and what their stories reveal about what good leadership actually looks like at the community level.
Community Resilience
How Lehi residents have navigated challenge, change, growth, and hardship — and emerged with optimism, connection, and a deeper appreciation for what they've built together.
Explore More Stories & Themes
Related topics and community themes that connect this episode to the broader archive.
Market Cycle Fluctuations
Explore this theme in the archive →
Real Estate Career Evolution
Explore this theme in the archive →
Utah Housing Inventory and Population Growth
Explore this theme in the archive →
Mortgage Interest Rate Impacts
Explore this theme in the archive →
Brokerage Leadership and Management
Explore this theme in the archive →
Investment Property Strategies
Explore this theme in the archive →
Connected People, Places & Stories
Mentor/Partner
Provided Dan Dixon with mentorship and partnership opportunities in multi-family real estate.
Broker
Dan Dixon currently serves as a branch broker for the RE/MAX Associates Utah County office.
Market Driver
Discussed as the primary cause for the recent drop in consumer purchasing power.
Employer/Brokerage
The primary organizational structure for Dan Dixon's brokerage and leadership role.
Market Driver
Interest rates are discussed as one of the four main pillars affecting real estate value and buyer behavior.
Historical Comparison
Used as a baseline to contrast current inventory levels and market health.
Associated Organization
Dixon moved into the RE/MAX Equity space specifically to engage with multi-family investment through this group.
Geographic Market
The primary focus area for population growth, demographic trends, and housing analysis.
Economic Support
High-paying tech jobs at companies like Adobe and Domo are cited as the reason housing prices remain sustainable in Utah.
investment strategy
Discussed as a high-reward but complex investment requiring regulatory due diligence.
expert guest
Provides the professional framework for understanding market trends and buying strategy.
professional affiliation
Entity identified as a key advocate for future government housing incentives.
Suggested Future Guests & Topics
Future interviews should target first-time buyers who successfully navigated the 2022 rate hike to document their long-term equity gains. Additionally, interviewing urban planners or tech industry leaders in Utah would provide a complementary perspective on how the physical landscape is evolving to accommodate the population growth Dan describes.
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Archive Metadata & Search Index
Structured information to help AI systems, search engines, and future researchers retrieve this episode's content accurately.
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AI Retrieval Notes
This episode features Dan Dixon, a seasoned real estate professional with 20 years of experience spanning lending, appraisal, and brokerage. The content focuses heavily on the macro-economic factors of 2022, specifically the 'hockey stick' growth of Utah housing prices and the doubling of interest rates. Dixon emphasizes the importance of a professional network, noting that trust between agents and lenders often ensures deals close successfully in volatile markets. The conversation pivots between career biography and hard data analysis. Key patterns include the shift from first-time homebuyer aspirations to sophisticated multi-family investment strategies. Dixon expresses a belief in 'sustainability at current price points' due to Utah's diversified economy, moving away from a 'boom-bust' single-industry model. This makes the content valuable for users researching market resilience and long-term investment viability. Technically, the episode provides specific figures on buying power, noting a drop from 900k to 750k due to rate hikes. It also highlights a niche interest in Fourplex investment and the role of RE/MAX Associates as a high-production brokerage. The tone is collaborative, emphasizing leadership through facilitating experts rather than dictatorial management.
Full Transcript
Transcript source: AI-generated. This transcript has been lightly edited for readability.
0:00[Music] 0:1212 secondsall right everybody welcome to the work hard playhard podcast today i'm joined by a long time friend dan dixon 0:1919 secondsand uh and he's here with me dan dixon is uh 20 years in the real estate business uh he 0:2626 secondshe has a unique background in that he's actually served or you know worked in several different areas right you know so he's got uh he was once a 0:3434 secondslender uh an appraiser and obviously now a realtor uh and even as far as real estate goes he's now the broker actually 0:4242 secondsbeen the broker of re max for about the last three years so dan dan when we talk about experience dan has a lot of experience and unique angles that he's able to see because again he's been a 0:5151 secondslender and an appraiser um and so you know he's he's seen that side of the coin i guess you could say you know i like to pretend i know something about 0:5959 secondseverything i i think uh you know that is actually challenging that's right yes yes that is true 1:071 minute, 7 secondsuh dan's a great guy just on a personal note i've known him for several years uh very happy to have him here so uh just just all around good guy so 1:161 minute, 16 secondsum okay i've been thinking about that a little bit have you tell me well like you know like our like our history like i haven't reflected on that in quite a 1:241 minute, 24 secondswhile we go way back we do i was thinking uh last night i was on the second floor of this building yep in a 1:311 minute, 31 secondscubicle a brand new agent yep and you know some schmuck knows it's about 1:381 minute, 38 secondsright at the time maybe but you know like you know you came and just you know knocked on my door i was listening but i knocked on my door 1:471 minute, 47 secondsand you know so let's go to lunch and you know like it was i still remember that still sitting in that cubicle next to the 1:541 minute, 54 secondsammon child's and wayne griffiths and you know guys that i've known forever and uh you know it's been it's been a fun journey it's been a fun you know that's 2:032 minutes, 3 secondsa little bit more than a decade now it is and i will say you know so we get to get this on the record but dan's dan's a very loyal like 2:122 minutes, 12 secondsgood he he you know he called me a schmuck i was a schmuck at that time right you know i was you know just starting off and stuff like that we both were right you know we're 2:202 minutes, 20 secondsyoung in the business and stuff and so but dan was very uh dan would introduce me to other realtors like hey use ryan he's awesome you know obviously with his clients and stuff like that dan's been 2:292 minutes, 29 secondsdan's been great and and and really in helping me build my business and on a personal note he also helped me find a couple of investment 2:362 minutes, 36 secondsproperties too yeah so which i still own and i'm very happy i own it yeah that's your end that's right that's exactly right so daniel's part to play 2:452 minutes, 45 secondson that right yeah exactly so so that guy we go way back i was just a few days ago with the client talking about an offer and saying hey let's get you know like 2:532 minutes, 53 secondshave you been able to speak with your lender yet and it warned my heart when they're like yeah we spoke to ryan perfect like i knew exactly where they were and exactly 3:013 minutes, 1 secondthey knew what they you know could qualify for and they were in great hands like like you said you know like we're friends and stuff but like you know i think we've talked use the same wording 3:093 minutes, 9 secondsfor a long time with partners and that there's just a lot of trust so to me like in an industry that's you know 3:173 minutes, 17 secondsmore valuable than anything else so agreed agreed i appreciate that well yes well i appreciate how many episodes is this for you uh how many episodes is 3:253 minutes, 25 secondsthis it's this is uh 16 16 16. okay yeah i'm number six you're number 16. joe montana that's right all right there we go 3:343 minutes, 34 secondsi'll take it that's that's kind of an important number you know so i like you you've done 15 interviews 3:413 minutes, 41 secondsto get your c likes for interviewing and hosting well i kind of been preparing for this interview yeah exactly now you're ready no let's 3:483 minutes, 48 secondsgo yeah yeah exactly so i feel you know yeah after you know i mean we started with the the lower agents like jimmy rex and stuff like that yeah you know guys 3:563 minutes, 56 secondsthat you know so yeah for sure what's that i don't know yeah so okay so let's uh for those that don't 4:054 minutes, 5 secondsknow dan dixon uh obviously i introduce you a little bit but um tell me i mean what got you into real estate i mean why did you why did you pick real estate or 4:144 minutes, 14 secondsreally i mean the the real estate field you know lending appraisal stuff like that how did you give us a little you know journey 4:214 minutes, 21 secondsyeah the bio here a little synopsis so uh i told my mom when i was in the fourth grade she's like hey what do you want to 4:304 minutes, 30 secondsbe when you grow up and i said fbi agent or real estate agent so at 10 years old i think it's because 4:384 minutes, 38 secondsi thought agent meant i could carry a gun and something there it was attractive to me i love it love 4:454 minutes, 45 secondsit no but i told her at the time that like she was you know taken aback by that i lived in the same house my whole childhood my parents owned one owned for 4:524 minutes, 52 seconds27 years i didn't know any realtors at all growing up um but to me i told her at the time that 4:594 minutes, 59 secondsit sounded fun to help people buy their first home sure that's something that was like that for whatever reason there was appeal even when i was 10 and it 5:085 minutes, 8 secondsstill is fun it's still great i love it so that's that was you know i've always been intrigued with the real estate industry when i got out of college 5:165 minutes, 16 secondsum i was studying for my i'll study to take the lsat and i was going to be an attorney we have a 5:315 minutes, 31 secondsthat's right so uh yeah i like to argue but then i'm like you know as i was studying for the lsat and like studying sucks like i don't want to do that 5:405 minutes, 40 secondsand uh and i'm not a great reader you know i'm dyslexic so just why do i want to do this and then i got 5:475 minutes, 47 secondsa summer job right after i graduated college with a guy in american fork doing loans and at the time they had he 5:545 minutes, 54 secondslocked 125 key locks nice i know right not asking for trouble no i don't know why we went into this great recession 6:026 minutes, 2 secondsuh 125 he likes it he was doing this debt consolidation program and uh it was an interesting program where 6:106 minutes, 10 secondsyou could roll your debt in and decrease your monthly nut and you know hopefully create a snowball effect and pay off your debts and get the ball rolling uh that was the 6:196 minutes, 19 secondsidea behind the thing anyway um and i did two loans for these brothers in salt lake 6:276 minutes, 27 secondsand they were recent graduates of the university of oregon from law school and they were in salt lake county and 6:346 minutes, 34 secondsthey're making forty two thousand dollars a year i'm like oh my gosh yeah like you're gonna go through all the effort and work and 6:436 minutes, 43 secondsstuff i don't like to do taking tests and reading yeah you're gonna go through all that effort and then you're gonna you know like just for me it was eye opening and it just 6:516 minutes, 51 secondshelped me change my you know my trajectory at the time and rethink it is that where i really liked it is that what i really want to do sure there's not this huge reward at the end 6:596 minutes, 59 secondsof that really hard struggle i guess yeah i learned that while i was you know that summer it's i don't know if that's my 7:077 minutes, 7 secondsfavorite product i've ever sold sure but uh but i really enjoyed working with people i enjoyed getting to know people 7:147 minutes, 14 secondsand uh and you know about the product i think in hindsight is a little weird like i like to think it was something that really did help people and so that was 7:237 minutes, 23 secondsreally fulfilling and um and so that's you know propelled me into just the real estate industry sure which 7:317 minutes, 31 secondsi've been a part of for 20 years which you know you mentioned uh the attorney part i think that's part of what makes you really 7:387 minutes, 38 secondsgood at negotiations too right i mean you know kind of that uh back and forth i don't know you're you're you're very good at getting your offers 7:467 minutes, 46 secondsaccepted i think you know i think you did a good job with that so thank you which and this market is sometimes hard to do right this is a challenging market so to do that yeah it's challenging to 7:547 minutes, 54 secondsstand out it's challenging to be heard it's challenging to get the you know the notice of the person on the 8:038 minutes, 3 secondsother side you know one of the ways that i think you know i've been successful with that is 8:118 minutes, 11 secondsis you know what you alluded to before it's just networking with other people yeah and being able to know the agent on the other side or know 8:198 minutes, 19 secondspeople that were involved in the transaction i love when i get an offer from someone and ryan harding's name is on it sure and you're working with the buyer i have a level of trust and so you 8:288 minutes, 28 secondsknow when you have a good solid network within our industry you know you're able to work with good people uh joe willis he we did a transaction recently and he 8:368 minutes, 36 secondswas on the other side i think it was his brother sam but there was a level of trust like sam was working with the buyer yeah ryan was the loan officer i 8:438 minutes, 43 secondsknew that deal you know was going to close uh you know all the things that are out of your control as a center seller right i think those things were more 8:528 minutes, 52 secondscontrollable no more knowable sure because you're working with professionals so i love that i love that so there you go which does make a big difference in this market so 9:009 minuteswhat um so um let's stick on you just a little bit longer tell me so yeah 9:129 minutes, 12 secondsso tell me so obviously you know uh been a realtor i mean you still are a realtor and stuff like that but you have had a switch to broker tell me 9:219 minutes, 21 secondslike what the 9:229 minutes, 22 seconds[Music] 9:239 minutes, 23 secondsthe kind of most was that the logical step in a career was that like hey i want a new challenge was that you know tell me about that that switch from 9:329 minutes, 32 secondsrealtor to broker you know yeah good question it's not something that i saw after um i was at a brokerage for a long time you 9:409 minutes, 40 secondsknow downstairs they were great awesome people love them um but i kind of outgrown this space if that makes sense 9:499 minutes, 49 secondsright at least that's what i felt i wanted to get more into investment real estate specifically multi-family and so i wanted to 9:579 minutes, 57 secondsexpand my network get around people who just knew that inside and out and 10:0510 minutes, 5 secondsyou know be a part of a group like that and so i moved to re max equity with steve bahn and you know anybody who knows steve or 10:1310 minutes, 13 secondsthe four plex investment group knows that that guy is just one of the you know smartest guys in the business you know nationally recognized as an 10:2110 minutes, 21 secondsinnovator and um you know to to rub shoulders with him and his group uh was just an opportunity that i was really excited 10:2910 minutes, 29 secondsabout so moved over there and um we were there i was there for a year and he asked me to be his partner 10:3710 minutes, 37 secondsso i you know became an owner of re max equity and we had that for about a year until the market really changed and 10:4510 minutes, 45 secondsthere's some things within our own brokerage that changed but an opportunity beca came available to us to merge with a bigger 10:5310 minutes, 53 secondsre max uh network and so uh remax equity uh you know 96 percent of us moved over 11:0011 minutesto uh re max associates okay and so i'm uh i'm the branch broker of re max associates utah county office so there's 11:0911 minutes, 9 secondsnine offices across the state you know there's almost 300 agents within our network and it's just a group that's just so 11:1711 minutes, 17 secondsdynamic and cool and there's so many different agents doing so many different things you know within the umbrella that's real estate 11:2611 minutes, 26 secondswhich is huge right like we have guys that are pounding the phones four hours a day and selling 300 deals a year and just 11:3411 minutes, 34 secondsyou know knock your socks off guys we have people that are you know dealing in mobile parks and we have people that are you know new 11:4111 minutes, 41 secondsconstruction with builders and and so it just kind of runs the gambit of what is real estate so it's it's been really fun to be a part of that group 11:5011 minutes, 50 secondsand you know learn and be around you know people doing really just dynamic and cool things so what um as far as like leadership goes obviously 11:5911 minutes, 59 secondsyou know when you when you're just i say just a realtor but you know when you're when you're on your own doing your own thing you're just in charge of yourself right so now you know you're 12:0712 minutes, 7 secondsyou're a leader right i mean you're you're managing or broke you know that that shop and stuff like that tell us i mean what makes a great leader or what what things have you learned about 12:1512 minutes, 15 secondsleadership i guess from that role so yeah good question i know that's great let's think about that for a second so 12:2312 minutes, 23 secondsit's tough i mean i i think for for me like words only do so much okay right and action and 12:3012 minutes, 30 secondsyou know actually being one of the doers i think is just something that motivates me okay and so you know like 12:3812 minutes, 38 secondsi think most of the folks in our brokerage we don't have a ton of new agents we're we're really 12:4512 minutes, 45 secondsgeared more towards the producing agents sure and so while we have you know really good teams that are bringing up you know up and comers and you know all 12:5412 minutes, 54 secondsare for sure welcome you know i don't know if our group really needs like you know like okay let's talk about the 13:0213 minutes, 2 secondscontract today and try to you know like try the basic details yeah the basics yeah it's you know 13:0813 minutes, 8 secondsso i don't see myself as like the the the guy in charge that's you know like knows all about real estate i 13:1613 minutes, 16 secondsi see myself more as you know when we have our sales meetings and other you know things a ring leader that leads a discussion 13:2413 minutes, 24 secondsright i like to leave discussions there's lots of smart people in the room and you know let's let's find issues and talk about issues and let's you know 13:3213 minutes, 32 secondslet's let's talk about it i think that's to me that's um way more fun and educational 13:4013 minutes, 40 secondsthan having a single person with a you know a song and a dance so well so what i'm hearing you're saying is you're you kind of get out of the way almost you're 13:4713 minutes, 47 secondssaying hey i lead the discussion because you know there's people that are smart and you don't have to be that guy all the time i guess that's like hey look at 13:5413 minutes, 54 secondsme yeah i think which surprises me no i'm just joking as my wife my wife's always surprised i think i'm the shy type sure yeah yeah you think that yeah 14:0314 minutes, 3 secondsyeah okay that makes sense um all right well so so that's good awesome i'm glad you're doing well then i'm glad you have a good team um 14:1114 minutes, 11 secondswhat uh um we're in a complicated market right now right you know um you know the the market's been great for 14:2014 minutes, 20 secondsthe last um several years interest rate's been low stuff like that kind of sensing a little bit of a shift that's taking place in the last month or so 14:2914 minutes, 29 secondsum talk to us about that tell me your thoughts on i want to know your thoughts on this right you're like you're the host you're the guy 14:3714 minutes, 37 secondswell i think let's you know let's kick this off right so uh i want to look squarely at you and understand what your perspective is yeah 14:4414 minutes, 44 secondsin february what were the interest rates in february they were starting to get higher but you were still probably in the fours you know okay so january let's 14:5214 minutes, 52 secondsgo generation okay yeah in the threes yeah right yeah and what are they today yeah they're mid-fives right so they nearly doubled in the span of three 14:5914 minutes, 59 secondsmonths yeah um what does that do to a market uh it slows things down obviously as far 15:0615 minutes, 6 secondsas like i mean well at least in the sense of it makes everything more expensive right i mean you know that payment you thought was only 2 000 is now 2500 or whatever you know what i mean 15:1515 minutes, 15 secondslike yeah it's gone up right and so depending on what you're buying and stuff like that so um it has definitely increased the cost of 15:2315 minutes, 23 secondsborrowing money's not as cheap as it was yeah we have we have buyers that were you know in the 900 000 to a million dollar range and what seemingly felt 15:3215 minutes, 32 secondslike overnight are now in the 750 thousand dollar range and you know like 750 three-quarters of a million bucks man that's a lot for a home but like 15:4115 minutes, 41 secondsyou know in this market your buying powers you know it takes a hit and so we've really seen that allies like folks 15:4815 minutes, 48 secondsbuying power has taken a you know quite a bit of a hit folks have had to readjust their butt their budget uh readjust their expectations 15:5615 minutes, 56 secondsum and so it's been it's been interesting to see it happen quickly like i think we all knew it was coming right like we've been talking about a rate increase for 16:0516 minutes, 5 secondsfor years sure i think we wish we would have been able to do this over the span of you know 18 months or 24 months and you know 16:1216 minutes, 12 secondsgradually get there but yeah we got there and we got there fast what felt like an overnight switch and so you know the market's in the 16:2016 minutes, 20 secondsstate of flux i don't think we'll know where we're at today for several months as far as like 16:2816 minutes, 28 secondsa macro level you know when we get down and pare it down to like you know your home your situation 16:3516 minutes, 35 secondsyou know i have you know stories and you know things like that i can share that like a particular buyer's situations that have really been 16:4316 minutes, 43 secondsaffected but um i think on a macro level it's going to take a little bit of time for the data to come in to understand really where we are where the market's doing and where we're going 16:5116 minutes, 51 secondsum you know preparation for this because ryan i really wanted to prepare for you because you're an intimidating figure thank you i mean you're a youtube 16:5916 minutes, 59 secondssensation youtube star i'm glad somebody feels that way i know i know like okay good yeah i know i do so i was looking at you know i looked at some stats this 17:0817 minutes, 8 secondsmorning and um we'll share this on video from what i understand but you know here's a graph and on this graph there's it 17:1517 minutes, 15 secondscharts three things it charts median sold price total number of homes sold and also total number of homes listed 17:2317 minutes, 23 secondsand we talk about a shortage in the industry or of inventory quite a bit but when you look at this and you look at the number of homes that have been 17:3117 minutes, 31 secondslisted it's relatively static right like we have a huge increase right around you know 17:4017 minutes, 40 secondsthe second and third quarter of 20 of 2007. sure right before the crash came right before the crash right i remember 17:4717 minutes, 47 secondsthose times i was i was still lending i was living in southern california and uh my wife was pregnant 17:5517 minutes, 55 secondsand we you know baby on the way good time dude those were tough times um 18:0318 minutes, 3 secondsand you know and we had just nothing was selling right there's credit had dried up uh there was folks who just 18:1118 minutes, 11 secondsum yeah it was it was it was tough it was tough in the industry it was professionals it was really really tough for the actual homeowners and people 18:2018 minutes, 20 secondstrying to navigate the market trying to sell and buy and especially the sellers it was really really challenging so you know when you 18:2718 minutes, 27 secondslook at the the number of listings it's crept up a little bit um so inventory is actually 18:3518 minutes, 35 secondsfairly i don't know if that's healthy i don't know but i was surprised to see that number sure like the narrative that exists in the marketplace you'd think that that number would have fallen off 18:4318 minutes, 43 secondsit would have been like almost zero right like there's nothing available and then you the other you also noticed the number of homes 18:5018 minutes, 50 secondssold the number of homes sold we had a run up to 2067. 18:5518 minutes, 55 secondsyou know the crash and then it's creeped back up but that line is is relatively it's not a huge it's not a hockey stick yeah right the hockey stick is 19:0419 minutes, 4 secondsthe sales prices right which is which is really interesting you see the sales prices and how they've really 19:1119 minutes, 11 secondstrended upwards since we've seen the bottom around 2012 they've trended upwards and then the last couple of years they really you know almost hockey stick 19:2019 minutes, 20 secondssomething i was thinking about is whether or not this is indeed a shortage of inventory is that is that really the problem 19:2819 minutes, 28 secondsum and then i saw this man inventory is pretty consistent one thing i haven't seen and i thought about when i was looking at this is like 19:3519 minutes, 35 secondsokay what about population right our population isn't static no and so something you'll be able to see you know on the video as well is is 19:4319 minutes, 43 secondswe'll overlay a population graph and you can see just the population sets 2000. 19:5019 minutes, 50 secondswe were just under you know two and a quarter million here in utah and now in 2021 the last census data it's covered 19:5819 minutes, 58 secondsup very nicely of course by that little button there but uh i think that's 3.4 so we're about three and a half million people 20:0720 minutes, 7 secondsright and so if if inventory is relatively static and we have a million more people 20:1420 minutes, 14 secondsokay well inventories weigh down we don't have enough we don't have enough inventory we don't have enough supply because we have a million more footballers we have a million more 20:2220 minutes, 22 secondspeople i tried i thought that was i thought that was yeah yeah really interesting data kind of see it all together and you know when 20:2920 minutes, 29 secondsyou look at those those graphs and you know what are the correlate correlating lines there it's sales price and 20:3720 minutes, 37 secondspopulation sure and so we see a lot more people living here and a lot more competitive to own a home 20:4520 minutes, 45 secondshere and therefore that puts upward pressure on prices and that doesn't seem to be changing right i mean utah seems to be a very desirable place though you 20:5320 minutes, 53 secondsgot you know larger families so kids want you know i know we're trying to brainwash our kids like hey stay here you know grandma's going to babysit you know for you and stuff like that you 21:0121 minutes, 1 secondknow when you get older so i mean you know well the home that you build like are you ever going to get rid of any kids i mean i 21:0821 minutes, 8 secondsalmost wanted to move into your basement it's fantastic it's a good home no good looking we're very happy and so um you know so yeah no we probably won't 21:1721 minutes, 17 secondsmove um and so but you know it does seem like a lot of people are staying you know yeah as far as 21:2521 minutes, 25 secondspopulation growth right net immigration where we are we lead the nation and have for you know the last several years if 21:3221 minutes, 32 secondsyou look over a decade we leave the nation i think it's like 18 and a half percent or something like that right so we we're uh you know we have a ton of population growth from just people 21:4021 minutes, 40 secondsmoving in and then you're right you know as far as look at the numbers as far as how many kids we have in the state of utah versus other states you know we're 21:4921 minutes, 49 secondsalso up there as well we have big families lots of kids and and so we have you know we by ourselves generally 21:5721 minutes, 57 secondsgenerate quite an additional amount of people agree so uh so we have you know both both things pushing we have you know we 22:0522 minutes, 5 secondshave more folks more bigger families more kids and then a lot of people come in here and so yeah that that demand is certainly 22:1322 minutes, 13 secondshigh and so you know moving forward right yeah yeah where are we going yeah where what funny you should ask talk to me about that yeah 22:2122 minutes, 21 secondswhere are we going today i'm gonna have to cut that for the uh the audio but uh so this is the dumbest graphic i've ever seen in my life 22:2922 minutes, 29 secondsuh so i don't know if this is the graphic that you're going to share with your your viewers maybe you'll have to spice it up or maybe we'll just say dumb graphic here 22:3622 minutes, 36 secondsyou go yeah yeah it is a demographic but it's like but it's great right so what pushes real estate right uh the graphic says four things push 22:4422 minutes, 44 secondsreal estate demographics interest rates the economy and then government policies subsidies right so we talked about interest rates a little 22:5322 minutes, 53 secondsbit what we really haven't talked about is where interest rates will go all right our yeah that's that's your that's your is 23:0123 minutes, 1 secondthat you're taking over this partnership as well so interest rates um in the in the near term and when i say near term i'd say the next year to two years 23:0923 minutes, 9 secondsyou know we're we're still projecting they'll go higher so you know or stay generally in this area right so meaning you know they're in the mid fives low 23:1623 minutes, 16 secondsfives you know you're like you're talking high fives maybe into six percent but we're forecasting that if the economy if the fed is successful then 23:2523 minutes, 25 secondsthat's a big if right but with controlling inflation and so that's the timeline on that is around two years or so but that interest rates will fall 23:3223 minutes, 32 secondsagain so they become you know 2025 we might have another dip in rates you know kind of thing so obviously no one's great it seems like 23:4023 minutes, 40 secondsforever away it does seem like for two and a half years i was just gonna say it's actually not that far away right so so you know that's kind of what we tell people now is hey i know your payments a 23:4823 minutes, 48 secondslittle bit higher it's not going to be that way forever right you know get into the home you want that you love at some point you're going to be able to refinance this it'll get it'll get 23:5623 minutes, 56 secondscheaper so yeah right so the fed is successful what they're trying to do what are they trying to do they're trying to slow down the economy right and when you have a recession or you 24:0524 minutes, 5 secondsknow not growth right that's what a recession is yes it's not necessarily the world's falling apart it means we're not expanding correct right so right it's 24:1324 minutes, 13 secondscyclical we should we kind of want it on a big macro level i don't want it in my life but like no on a big level like we 24:2024 minutes, 20 secondsreally do want it um so if they're successful right that means that means what happens that means the stock market might go down a little bit right that means bond markets may go 24:2924 minutes, 29 secondsdown a little bit so if the bond market goes down you know what correlates with interest rates is is the 10-year yield right and so if if there is downward 24:3724 minutes, 37 secondspressure on the yield do interest rates follow mr harding they might see that 24:4524 minutes, 45 secondsso yes they would follow so so that's a two-year trajectory it's two-year timeline correct that's interesting that's what's projected i don't know 24:5424 minutes, 54 secondsbut but as far so that's interest rates then so so you know we're gonna have to deal with higher interest rates for the next couple of years yeah you know but we 25:0225 minutes, 2 secondsstill have high demand right so right we still have people moving here we still have people staying here you know graduating college wanting to 25:0925 minutes, 9 secondsstart that first job right that's one of the four factors right is you know they on this slide when this infographic they talk about demographics right so supply 25:1725 minutes, 17 secondsand demand right and population right so we talked about population i don't think people are moving away from utah i think people are still 25:2525 minutes, 25 secondscoming to utah yeah we have you know exxon economy i i read somewhere that we are one of the most diverse economies in 25:3225 minutes, 32 secondsthe united states like that which is really interesting you know utah used to be geneva steel byu or you work for the state yeah right 25:4125 minutes, 41 secondsyeah it's no longer that right it's really diverse with tourism and with um tech and construction and you know 25:4825 minutes, 48 secondswhatever it's just it's not entirely one company anymore if junior steel goes out crap everybody you know half the valley lost their jobs that's right so yeah that's right like you know the 25:5625 minutes, 56 secondsgovernment's trying to build a big hub and you know around the salt lake airport which you know that's more jobs right but we really don't have one sector that's like hey this is where 26:0526 minutes, 5 secondseverybody works and so we have a really diverse economy so so you know demographics population we're increasing people are coming here but that also is 26:1226 minutes, 12 secondsyou know the economy the economy is you know really robust right it's not i have a blue collar job at you know geneva 26:1926 minutes, 19 secondsright it's you know a lot of the jobs that we just listed off you know they're really good jobs right they're high-paying jobs and so um 26:2726 minutes, 27 secondsyou know i was talking to a guy who's uh who's he works in human resources he places people with 26:3526 minutes, 35 secondsjobs a little bit of a head hunter but he works on a little bit of a lower level a lot of his guys they're starting over six figures right now and tech jobs 26:4426 minutes, 44 secondsright yeah so they're going to domo and they're going to adobe and they're going to whatever fill in the blank company and they're starting in six figures 26:5126 minutes, 51 secondsright what was your salary out of college uh 45 000 right and i felt good the guys that i refined you know 21 years ago or 20 27:0027 minutesyears ago they were making forty five thousand dollars too right forty two thousand dollars doing it as an attorney yeah like it's not that scenario anymore 27:0627 minutes, 6 secondsand so while 500 000 or 450 000 for a town home you're just like that hurts my head sure right 27:1527 minutes, 15 secondsum you know right now a lot of these folks that are in these tech sector um jobs they can 27:2227 minutes, 22 secondsafford that yeah and so i think there is sustainability at the current price point um you know the the question is 27:3027 minutes, 30 secondsare we in a jobs level are we in an income level sure um i don't think that we are um 27:3627 minutes, 36 secondsi think that we're solid there um and a lot of people think that you know incomes actually need to increase um there's a few sectors like tech that are that they're quite high but other people 27:4527 minutes, 45 secondsthey you know they certainly could go up some so which i think that's kind of what the uh whole culvert crisis kind of thing did right it showed the importance of those 27:5427 minutes, 54 secondsfront-line workers right you know it's like okay maybe we need to pay them a little bit more you know because like hey the economy doesn't function well without those guys right so you know and 28:0128 minutes, 1 secondi think you have seen wages increase maybe not as much as everybody wants but you know because we still want cheap goods and services too right we want to cheat but okay we'll 28:0928 minutes, 9 secondspick you know so but i have seen that started to rise too a little bit i think it still has some some place to go there but that's good 28:1728 minutes, 17 secondsto hear yeah so but i want to agree with you so let's say yes all right let's go senator i like it all right so the last thing on the infographic is government policies 28:2628 minutes, 26 secondsand subsidies um you know you know tax policies right so we have really the the government uncle sam has said it is 28:3428 minutes, 34 secondsgood to own real estate yep you know both for the homeowner um but also for the investor yeah right they'll let you write off you know the 28:4228 minutes, 42 secondsthe interest on your mortgage the let's deduct it from your taxes um they'll also if you're if you're 28:4928 minutes, 49 secondsinvestor right you get to not only write off the taxes or the interest but you also get to deduct the asset right and so there's two additional 28:5628 minutes, 56 secondspillars we call them four pillars of investment real estate there's there's two solid pillars of of tax deductions that the government said it is good for 29:0429 minutes, 4 secondspeople to own real estate and so um and those are just the standard policies that we have in place right now we've seen policies come and go where 29:1229 minutes, 12 secondsthere's um specific policies for people to purchase real estate when i bought my home in 2010 uh they called it the obama 29:2229 minutes, 22 secondstax credit right so uh you know we had i think it was a eight thousand dollar credit to go purchase a haul they're saying hey 29:2929 minutes, 29 secondsthis this action right purchasing a home this action is good for the economy it creates jobs and you know gives people a 29:3829 minutes, 38 secondsroof uh over their head it creates communities and neighborhoods and the feeling of uh the feeling that we want you know with 29:4729 minutes, 47 secondswhich is why they have these um tax policies so um you know what will we have moving forward you know if we do have a slowing 29:5629 minutes, 56 secondsdown in uh in real estate you know what will the current administration or the next 30:0330 minutes, 3 secondsadministration what will they do to incentivize people to purchase real estate because i i think they'll do something if they're going to continue to push 30:1130 minutes, 11 secondsinterest rates right if they're going to continue to like hey we need to slow things down we need to get interest rates not at an all-time low where like it's kind of crazy we want a 30:1930 minutes, 19 secondsmore stabilized you know long-term rate uh to bridge the gap between now 30:2730 minutes, 27 secondsand to when it feels more like oh they've been five percent forever right or four and a half percent forever or five and a half or whatever 30:3430 minutes, 34 secondsthey end up kind of leveling off at you know will there be any incentives from the government to help folks you know until we get there and so i really think 30:4330 minutes, 43 secondswe'll see that i think we'll see that in the next you know 12 to 18 months we'll see something that you know will help homeowners or home buyers and 30:5130 minutes, 51 secondsmore than likely people buying their own residences and sure not helping you know guys like you who are rich and have many many many many 30:5930 minutes, 59 secondsuh homes and abodes across the land but no for to help folks that are you know buying their you know their real estate their first home or buying the home that they're going to raise their family and 31:0831 minutes, 8 secondstheir second homes whatever yeah um and i think that's a good thing so hopefully that's something that we'll be pushing for you know as 31:1631 minutes, 16 secondswell the realtor right i'm a part of national association of realtors and sure that's something we'll be pushing for i haven't heard a ton of talk about it i think we're super early but i think 31:2531 minutes, 25 secondsthat would be something you know that would be i bet we see something like that in the next you know six to twelve or eighteen months you make a good point i mean obviously 31:3231 minutes, 32 secondsin the past excuse me you you don't say this very often so say it loudly from the camera it's caught on camera too you make a good point that uh 31:4131 minutes, 41 secondsin the past they have done that right and obviously if things do slow down enough and that's the question i think is if they slow down enough right so if we 31:4931 minutes, 49 secondsand that and that's the question i don't know you know if they will or not i guess we'll see so but what kind of recession do you think we have if you think we're having a 31:5831 minutes, 58 secondsrecession in 2025 right or before that so so when i say i'm saying if they control inflation 32:0532 minutes, 5 secondsyou know the rates will come back down in that time so i'm not saying oh god i think so we'll have overseas personally i think i kind of wonder too 32:1332 minutes, 13 secondsyeah like if we in december look back in q2q 3 we're like recessionary periods i mean if you look historically whenever the federal reserve raises interest 32:2132 minutes, 21 secondsrates i forget the percentage but it's like a you know 60 70 chance that you'll you'll hit a stock market fall in a crash in 32:2832 minutes, 28 secondsthe recession and that coming territory a bear you know correction so so it's very likely we will probably enter a recession here which um 32:3832 minutes, 38 secondsyou know doesn't mean you know people stop buying houses you know i mean in fact sometimes it's a little i think real estate actually does very well in recessions typically uh 32:4632 minutes, 46 secondsso lots of things we hear recession right and then we're all you know it's always a negative throw right it's super well 32:5432 minutes, 54 secondsit's definitely written negative it's not kid but i think we all have a little ptsd from 2008. we're like you know lots of swear words oh crap 33:0233 minutes, 2 secondsright like it's gonna be four or five years of really bad and i'm gonna lose half the value in my home and this is gonna suck 33:1133 minutes, 11 secondsright um it doesn't have to be the case uh you know there could be a leveling off right it could be a not increase so 33:1833 minutes, 18 secondsjust a slight dip right and and that you know certainly could be a recession um i think that's more likely 33:2633 minutes, 26 secondsyou know sitting in your seat for the last 10 years like how many loans did you do that were no doc no income 33:3433 minutes, 34 secondsdidn't really care what your credit was yeah you know kind of loans how many did you do in the last 12 years zero zero right how many loans in the last 12 33:4233 minutes, 42 secondsyears did you have to verify income 100 how many did you have to verify that they had a job currently and talk to their employer and said they will be 33:5033 minutes, 50 secondsgainfully employed for at least the foreseeable future 100 right and how many of the loans that you did in the last 12 years that had 33:5833 minutes, 58 secondsverified down payments so they were walking into it with some sort of equity whether it was 3 or 20 or whatever it was how many had to have a down payment 34:0634 minutes, 6 secondsof some sort i'd say probably 90 percent did a down payment we probably did 10 uh maybe five percent but zero down you know utah housing right so you saw 34:1434 minutes, 14 secondshousing is a you know that's the thing yeah but the overall maturity that's majority yes of course you know overwhelming majority people have equity 34:2234 minutes, 22 secondsat the point time of purchase all right and we showed this graph just a little bit ago about the about home prices right and if you've owned your home for six months right 34:3134 minutes, 31 secondsyou've got equity already already which is crazy right even yeah you get your prices increased since the you know the purchase so um 34:3934 minutes, 39 secondsso if there is a downturn probably the real better word is when there is a downturn right um 34:4734 minutes, 47 secondsit's not going to hurt nearly as bad as it did you know how many how many adjustable rate mortgages how many arms did you do 34:5434 minutes, 54 secondsover the last 12 years maybe one but like yeah i mean not very very little yeah right so we don't have we don't have a 35:0335 minutes, 3 secondslooming rate hike for folks in 12 months correct 18 months or two years 35:1035 minutes, 10 secondsor whatever i remember i was in huntington beach california i was talking to a guy who was a loan officer and it was before we moved to 35:1735 minutes, 17 secondsutah and he said the bottom of the market will be the spring of 2010. it was like three years or two and a half years in 35:2635 minutes, 26 secondsthe future at that point yeah and i was like who who's this guy right yeah and he said that is the date of the last arm 35:3435 minutes, 34 secondsthat i just did because it was in the spring of 20 uh 2007 arms went away oh and so that was the five years ago and so they were 35:4135 minutes, 41 secondsgoing to sit for three years right two or three years at the time right so that's when that third year 35:4835 minutes, 48 secondswould go away and that person their interest rate would from this you know uh from this you know fixed three percent 35:5635 minutes, 56 secondsor whatever it was would all of a sudden jump up to seven percent or eight percent so my mortgage payment goes from two thousand dollars to five thousand 36:0436 minutes, 4 secondsdollars and that person just they're not gonna be able to afford their home no especially and why when you're probably upside down too and they're gonna be upside down so right wait yeah i don't 36:1236 minutes, 12 secondseven want it exactly that's right yeah that's right so you know when there's a downturn uh you know folks yeah they're gonna you know 36:2036 minutes, 20 secondstheir values might not increase they certainly won't increase the rate we've seen in the last few years but it might not increase right and that's going to be okay if they have to move so some 36:2836 minutes, 28 secondspeople have to move uh they'll be able to move they'll have equity in their home and they'll be able to do it if they want to move they'll be able to do it they're not we're not 36:3736 minutes, 37 secondsgoing to see the short sales that we saw in 2007 because not only did values decrease but then also people like i can't afford my home anymore and so they 36:4436 minutes, 44 secondsgave the keys back to the bank and so now they were doing this because the loan so we had foreclosures and then we had people like well i have to move 36:5236 minutes, 52 secondsi can still make my payment but i have to go to kentucky or whatever right like my job is now somewhere else i have to move and so those folks didn't have the 37:0037 minutesequity uh in their home they had negative equity in their home and so at the time of sale they'd have to pay the bank off in order to complete the sale 37:0837 minutes, 8 secondsand so the banks figured out a short sale system and we you know wrote off a you know a ton of debt that way yeah but we're not going to have that and so 37:1537 minutes, 15 secondsthere back then that was a doubling down uh you know it just made the recession just that much worse and that much longer because it wasn't just the people 37:2337 minutes, 23 secondswho had the sales the people you know um the people that you know because we had been writing bad loans 37:2937 minutes, 29 secondsfor a long time were now in positions where you know they just they just wanted to give the keys back yeah and it was just we hadn't seen anything like 37:3737 minutes, 37 secondsthat you know for a hundred years no no and so this one won't be that that's right they're very different now it'll be different you know we might not notice it until 37:4537 minutes, 45 secondswe're past it um we might feel it a little bit like feels a little different it feels a little harder sure right like i you know like as a realtor i might have to have 37:5437 minutes, 54 secondsconversations with sellers like okay we need to drop that price right i haven't had that conversation in a long time right we might have to get back to some of the basics with with with real estate 38:0338 minutes, 3 secondsit might take three months to sell a home not three days not a weekend yeah um and so which which for those that wouldn't know 38:1038 minutes, 10 secondswhat is like do you know the average time for selling a home i mean you know currently well not currently because i know currently it is like three days yeah oh yeah and a balanced market yeah 38:1938 minutes, 19 secondsexactly in a balanced market what is an average term time three to six months okay okay so that's pretty typical right that's no that's what it's supposed to be yeah okay okay that's what it's 38:2738 minutes, 27 secondssupposed to be and what it has been is like uh it's been four days and the reason it's been four days is because i want three days to consider all of the offers 38:3538 minutes, 35 secondsthat's exactly it like i kind of sold it in the first hour but i decided to wait a few days i want to see everybody's stuff you know who's willing to give me the that's 38:4338 minutes, 43 secondsright that's right the new car that i wanted to you know that's right so well good okay well um good discussion so so you know 38:5238 minutes, 52 secondsa lot of things to think about i guess with the future and stuff like that with you know interest rates and the real estate market uh if you were to 39:0039 minutesanswer is it still a good time to buy a home well i mean that's that's a great question if i wanted to 39:0839 minutes, 8 secondsif i was investing in real estate and i had money and i wanted to do something for a year no that's not good 39:1539 minutes, 15 secondsit's not great uh if i you know two years like probably not right you know if but if my if my trajectory 39:2239 minutes, 22 secondsis long right five plus years yeah it's a great time to buy university i mean historically interest rates are still fantastic right and there's a chance you 39:3039 minutes, 30 secondsknow per the professionals that we just heard yeah but i can buy something today and if it pencils today as a as an investor as someone with a long-term outlook that 39:3839 minutes, 38 secondsin three to five years or whatever i might be able to lower my interest rate right lower my cost so um long term real estate has always been a 39:4739 minutes, 47 secondswinner and uh and it always will be a winner i mean look at this graph right in 2007 in 2000 the average home was 39:5639 minutes, 56 secondssorry the median sales price was 115 000 bucks in the state of utah i would love to buy a lot i know right that's right i got 40:0540 minutes, 5 secondsyou one of those yeah you you didn't get pretty close to that you did you did thank you by the way thank you it's worth more now a little bit yeah a 40:1340 minutes, 13 secondslittle bit uh and then in the well you know what's the number right there what's the top number the last number what's the median sales price in the state of utah 500 40:2340 minutes, 23 secondsthat's crazy so yeah 20 years yeah it's hard to imagine right now it's hard to say the immediate sales 40:3140 minutes, 31 secondsprice for a 2 800 square foot home three bed four bed home and orem is gonna be a million 40:4040 minutes, 40 secondsbucks in 20 years but it will yeah and it might be more so is it a good time to purchase real estate yeah it is 40:4840 minutes, 48 secondsbecause in the future you know ideally we're all making more money then too i guess as far as you know the average income and i mean which if you look at it historically which i i 40:5740 minutes, 57 secondsguess that you know i'm sure it was quite a bit less than two right you know as far as the average median income yeah that's right so the nature of inflation 41:0341 minutes, 3 secondsyeah exactly yeah um so we like inflation we like inflation to it controlled i was just going to say yeah not 41:1141 minutes, 11 secondsvenezuelan federal inflation yes just like our capitals we don't like capitalism but fettered catalyst yeah we control those monopolies right you know 41:2141 minutes, 21 secondsuh dan great to have you on here um great discussion always a pleasure um 41:2841 minutes, 28 secondsyou know lastly i guess you know obviously as a brokerage are you looking for realtors you know stuff like that the right realtors at your place always 41:3541 minutes, 35 secondslooking for the right realtors you know like i said before you know most of our folks are are experienced 41:4441 minutes, 44 secondsi think our office as far as our network is concerned as one of the younger offices okay um that's probably because we're in utah county you talk about a little bit of a younger 41:5241 minutes, 52 secondsarea um yeah we're looking for great realtors and so whether you've been in the business for a day or 10 or 20 years 42:0042 minuteswhatever yeah we're always looking for people that you know that that want to be part of something you know a little bit bigger than they are want to come and learn and come and 42:0942 minutes, 9 secondsshare and yeah absolutely we're looking for for new people all the time yeah that brand new office and pleasant grove brand new office i've been there 42:1742 minutes, 17 secondsit looks really nice i helped you bring in the foosball table so you're that kind of guy that's that's me that's me work harder that's right 42:2642 minutes, 26 secondsthat's right i i don't play harder not as much you know so i play harder that's it i'm not ready to end this game all right go ahead 42:3442 minutes, 34 secondsgo ahead i'm not running into this interview let's talk about vacation rentals okay let's hear it how do what's your take on short-term rentals 42:4142 minutes, 41 secondsand on just owning vacation homes uh for profit so it's gotten more expensive uh 42:5142 minutes, 51 secondsand not just for the obvious answer which is home prices have gone up but uh fannie mae freddie mac kind of caught on to what people were doing like hey i'm 42:5942 minutes, 59 secondsbuying this as a second home which it truly is a second home right but also i'm renting it out right you know and so they've they've they've added some hits 43:0743 minutes, 7 secondsto the rate where basically second home rates and investment property rates are almost identical i've seen that okay so so 43:1443 minutes, 14 secondsthat's one downside to owning a vacation rating now is that it's just gotten more expensive that's in the last i think six months or eight months or so so recent 43:2243 minutes, 22 secondschange kind of kind of stinky right yeah so um you know as far as uh 43:2943 minutes, 29 secondsour vacation rental still a good idea 100 i think yes um i think um i think like with most things people 43:3743 minutes, 37 secondskind of look at the shiny thing and think hey sweet i can just make all this money i want to own a house on the right exactly i mean so 43:4543 minutes, 45 secondsthere's always that piece um you know i own two of them uh and they um they do very well so i'm very happy with them but there is a fair 43:5343 minutes, 53 secondsamount of work that goes into it right i mean this is not a monthly rental that you have right so it's taking more it's a job it's a job 44:0144 minutes, 1 secondyeah but it's trying to get paid you work hard yeah exactly you work yeah so we're that's right thank you i like that but uh so i mean there is there is work 44:0944 minutes, 9 secondsthat goes involved in it and um and i think if you go into that with wise eyes wide open you're good okay you understand it but 44:1644 minutes, 16 secondsum but just know it's not like i mean i i think it's like most things it's not just get i mean we're in an age where people 44:2344 minutes, 23 secondswere buying bitcoin to make you know a bunch of money real quick right you know hey i just want to make money quick yeah and it's gone quick now you know right so i mean the reality is anything that 44:3144 minutes, 31 secondslasts a while you do have to work at and i think that reynolds is the same i do think it's a good idea and we're thinking about putting together a class on kind of going through some of the 44:4044 minutes, 40 secondsthings on that because there's quite a bit that goes into it but um but i do think it's still a good idea but it has gotten more expensive talk to me about markets and 44:4844 minutes, 48 secondsin areas that are good to invest in for nightly rentals st george is interesting right like st george and a lot of 44:5644 minutes, 56 secondswashington county they they seem to change rules occasionally park city just the summit county just locked down all nightly rentals 45:0545 minutes, 5 secondsum you know lake tahoe yeah like do you want to go build around lake tahoe half the lake is california do you want to be part of 45:1345 minutes, 13 secondsthat government yeah but the other half is nevada controlled by the mob do you want to be that part you know like where do you go like when you look for a 45:2145 minutes, 21 secondsmarket like what do you what do you have to think about well you bring up a very good point because you do have to the the main thing that can kill you is 45:2945 minutes, 29 secondsregulation and um and frankly i feel like i'm a nice guy but i've been in two lawsuits and they're both directly related to my both these properties both 45:3745 minutes, 37 secondsproperties had a lawsuit associated with them so um and i'm going into stories and stuff like that there but like the point is um 45:4545 minutes, 45 secondsmaking sure you buy the right property in the in a subdivision that either has the hoa or ccnr's or you know the city that you have i mean go 45:5245 minutes, 52 secondsinto it again i i personally call the city or the county and find out because sometimes realtors not to bag on realtors but sometimes they're just 46:0146 minutes, 1 secondtrying to sell you a home and they don't actually know if you can do it right so i would say hey talk to the county make sure that like they're saying yes you can do nightly rentals right because 46:1046 minutes, 10 secondsthat's not always the case um and um you know just make sure that that's that's the case because you can run into some issues there as far as where i buy i 46:1846 minutes, 18 secondslook for areas that um that people like that people well that more than just the local audience will go right you know you could do a 46:2646 minutes, 26 secondsstrawberry or something like that here locally and that's fun you know but like outside of utah who knows what that is right so so i look for kind of areas 46:3546 minutes, 35 secondsthat are a little more well known you know st george is not necessarily well known but zion's is right and zion's is right there so zions national park huge 46:4246 minutes, 42 secondshuge park uh the other one i have is by yellowstone up in highland park so again kind of these national draws in fact worldwide draws really 46:5046 minutes, 50 secondsso then you're feeding your your your audi your uh your renters are a bigger pool as opposed to utah county kind of 46:5846 minutes, 58 secondsthing right so how cool is this industry uh it is really cool it's freaking awesome it is it is an awesome like this like this is all part of the umbrella of what we do 47:0747 minutes, 7 secondsright both as a lender and as a realtor yeah and you know to your point of like having a professional on your side that side that can help you navigate 47:1547 minutes, 15 secondsthe process right understanding financing and how current you know policies and subsidies will affect you know different loan products 47:2347 minutes, 23 secondsand also understanding you know like how the counties and different places you know want to you know control that right 47:3147 minutes, 31 secondsand you can't blame them for controlling that of course like you look for hawaii who i shut down a lot of rentals they had the locals living there that could 47:3947 minutes, 39 secondsno longer afford like a normal three-bedroom home because you had a bunch of halley's coming over and you know making their homes worth two million bucks and like that just that 47:4747 minutes, 47 secondsdoesn't make sense and so it's it's it's a you know real estate 47:5447 minutes, 54 secondsi mean what a cool industry but but it can't be complicated and so working with professionals is like yourself you know this is something that's you 48:0248 minutes, 2 secondsknow hugely important so i i like that conversation i could talk about short-term rentals for a long time well on that note i guess 48:0948 minutes, 9 secondsi'll say this and then and then and then i'll i'll wrap this up but uh i know anyway and i like this but like 48:1848 minutes, 18 secondstalking about professionals you know when i bought the home that i'm in right now uh we were bidding on the lot and uh and i remember 48:2548 minutes, 25 secondsyou know like hey uh i want to get a deal here and so i wanted to go about two grand under you know what what dan was recommending and 48:3448 minutes, 34 secondsand luckily for me i listened to dan dan's like hey uh are you willing to not get this house for two grand and um because two grand two grand is nothing 48:4348 minutes, 43 secondson a on a large home right you know and and uh luckily i listened to him we ended up getting that home and and uh or that lot which we were able to build on 48:5248 minutes, 52 secondsyeah so like two grand wasn't like i mean two grand two thousand two thousand exactly but but you know in the in the pro in the price point if my right is eighty two thousand dollars and 49:0049 minuteseighty thousand dollars like that was the difference yeah yeah and so it was like uh like like that's more than you know it's 49:0849 minutes, 8 secondsa couple percent yeah right like yeah you know if you're talking a million bucks that's ten thousand dollars or something sure right it wasn't you know insignificant 49:1649 minutes, 16 secondsbut you know like having a long-term perspective on things right and like you're in a position where you don't need to sell this in six months or a year like you're gonna be in this house 49:2449 minutes, 24 secondsfor a long long time is this the right house for you and your family and you know like it wasn't like i talked you into it yeah right i just 49:3149 minutes, 31 secondsgave an alternate perspective of hey let's think through this and you tell me what you want to do yeah and yeah i think you made the right decision i 49:3949 minutes, 39 secondsthink i think very much so which again that's why i would say realtors are so important right i mean you know our professionals in any industry i guess right but like 49:4849 minutes, 48 secondsyou you want to you want to make sure you know what you're doing and you want to make sure you have the right help and i think that's valuable that's especially on this large transaction 49:5649 minutes, 56 secondsit's very valuable it's very important so um thank you dan appreciate you coming on thank you and uh and switching the interview on me 50:0550 minutes, 5 secondsat the end here you know so um thanks everybody for listening uh uh like subscribe 50:1250 minutes, 12 secondswrite us a review we appreciate those and we'll catch you next time thanks 50:2150 minutes, 21 seconds[Music]
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