Forecasting The Utah Real Estate Market & The Locked in Effect with SuAnne Hoffman
Industry veteran SuAnne Hoffman explores the 'locked-in effect' and why Utah's real estate recovery is a long-term journey for buyers and builders alike.
SuAnne Hoffman
Utah Real Estate
At a Glance
Archive Scoring
Introduction
With over three decades of experience navigating the peaks and valleys of Utah’s housing landscape, SuAnne Hoffman offers a perspective that transcends simple sales statistics. She views the current market not just as a series of transactions, but as a complex strategic puzzle where external economic forces have turned the real estate industry into a 'sacrificial lamb' to combat national inflation. This episode moves beyond the surface-level fear of high interest rates to look at the underlying humanity of why people move, even when the numbers don't perfectly align.
SuAnne reflects on the 'locked-in effect,' a psychological and financial phenomenon where the vast majority of homeowners are tethered to sub-4% mortgage rates, effectively freezing the traditional move-up market. This stagnation creates a unique challenge for first-time buyers and growing families who find themselves competing for a dwindling supply of existing homes. Her insights into the behavior of large-scale builders—some of whom have pivoted to becoming landlords of their own inventory—reveal a market in a state of high-stakes adaptation.
There is a deep sense of historical continuity in SuAnne’s narrative. She compares our current moment to the fallout of 2008, yet highlights a critical difference: the current scarcity is driven by a lack of inventory rather than a surplus of bad debt. This distinction is vital for anyone sitting on the fence, waiting for a price crash that may never materialize in a high-demand state like Utah. Her advice is grounded in the reality that while markets fluctuate, the security of homeownership remains the ultimate engine for personal financial transformation.
For the aspiring homeowner, the conversation shifts toward the tactical use of interest rate buy-downs and the importance of professional advocacy. SuAnne emphasizes that the 'magic moment' to buy often occurs before the mainstream media catches wind of a recovery. By the time the news cycle turns positive, the most advantageous opportunities have usually vanished. This underscores the value of having a seasoned guide who can see the 'shadow inventory'—those homes that didn't sell but whose owners are still quietly waiting for the right offer.
Ultimately, this episode is a call to return to the basics. For realtors, it is a reminder that the industry is built on networking and human connection, not just social media algorithms. For buyers, it is an encouragement to look past the immediate 'sticker shock' of interest rates and focus on the long-term appreciation that has historically allowed Utah homeowners to catapult their wealth. SuAnne’s pragmatic optimism serves as a roadmap for those looking to plant roots in an uncertain but resilient market.
Episode Overview
A detailed look at the topics, people, and context of this conversation.
SuAnne Hoffman joins host Ryan Harding to share her thirty-year journey from a curious newcomer to a seasoned real estate strategist and investor. Having weathered multiple economic cycles, SuAnne provides a rare macro-view of the Utah market, specifically focusing on the 'locked-in effect' that has paralyzed inventory across the Wasatch Front. She explains why she believes we are only halfway through a five-year market correction and how the current environment differs from the catastrophic collapse of 2008.
The conversation dives deep into the struggles of modern builders and the mass exodus of part-time realtors who entered the industry during the easy-money years. SuAnne offers a candid look at how professionals must now return to 'old school' networking and high-level education to survive. She also provides a detailed breakdown of Utah's unique tax advantages, including low property taxes and the absence of real estate sales tax, which keep the state competitive even during national downturns.
Listeners will gain a better understanding of the 'Three Ds' of real estate—divorce, death, and relocation—and why these remain the primary drivers of movement in a high-interest-rate world. SuAnne’s tone is one of weathered expertise; she is neither a blind optimist nor a doomer, but a realist who understands that real estate remains a superior investment to the stock market over time. This episode is essential listening for anyone trying to time the Utah market or understand the hidden mechanics of modern mortgage affordability.
Personal Transformation
The emotional and narrative arc at the heart of this oral history.
SuAnne Hoffman illustrates a transformation from a typical real estate agent focused on property aesthetics to a high-level strategist with over 30 years of experience. Her journey highlights the shift from active sales to passive investment, emphasizing that true financial stability in the housing industry comes from a long-term strategic view rather than chasing immediate commissions.
Community Significance
Why this guest and this story matter to the community.
This episode is significant because it demystifies the 'Locked-in Effect,' where high interest rates prevent the natural flow of housing inventory. It teaches future buyers that the housing market is often impacted by external policy forces rather than organic supply and demand alone. By understanding that real estate is often the 'sacrificial lamb' for curbing inflation, community members can make more rational, less emotional decisions about when to enter the market.
Furthermore, the episode emphasizes the importance of individual financial health over market timing. It teaches that the 'right' time to buy is highly subjective and depends more on personal life changes—such as divorce, job changes, or special family needs—than on waiting for the perfect interest rate, which may take years to materialize.
"I love real estate because of the strategy of it. The marketing and the strategy is just... houses are lovely and I love houses, but that's 100% not why I love what we do."
— SuAnne Hoffman · 1:04
Key Themes & Life Lessons
The ideas that run beneath the stories — and what they teach about community, leadership, and belonging.
The Locked-in Effect
Real Estate Market Forecasting
Utah Housing Inventory Challenges
Real Estate Investing as a Career
Strategic Home Buying and Selling
Impact of Interest Rates on Inflation
Comparison of Market Cycles (2008 vs. Present)
Wisdom & Life Lessons
A key piece of wisdom is the 'Buy Down' strategy, which allows buyers to prioritize monthly affordability over the base interest rate. This shifts the focus from the 'sticker price' of a loan to the practical reality of monthly cash flow.
Another lesson is the warning against seller financing for sellers. While it may seem like a solution in a slow market, the episode warns that it is often contractually risky and can lead to significant legal and financial trouble if not handled by an absolute expert. Finally, the episode reinforces the 'basics'—networking and consistent living standards—as the only true defense against economic volatility.
Key Takeaways
- 1The guest predicts a five-year recovery cycle from the start of the interest rate hikes, placing the market roughly at the halfway point.
- 2The 'Locked-in Effect' refers to the 82% of Wasatch Front homeowners with mortgage rates below 4.5% who are unwilling to move and trade for higher rates.
- 3Inventory in Utah County is currently dominated by new construction, as resale inventory remains historically low.
- 4Property tax ramifications and federal income tax issues should be a primary consideration before deciding to sell a home.
- 5Shadow inventory can be uncovered by identifying homes that previously came off the market without selling and reaching out directly to the owners.
- 6A 2-1 or 3-1 interest rate buy-down is a key strategy for maintaining affordability in the current high-rate environment.
- 7Real estate continues to be a superior long-term financial vehicle compared to stocks, provided the buyer can afford the monthly payment.
Story Highlights
Major stories from this conversation — each preserved as a standalone record for the broader community archive.
SuAnne Hoffman reflects on her 32-year career, noting that while many enter real estate because they love houses, her passion evolved into a love for the strategy of the business. She describes her fascination with marketing, the 'chase' of shifting markets, and the strategic flow required to help people navigate economic ups and downs rather than just the aesthetic of the properties.
Emotional Significance
It highlights a shift from superficial interest to a deeper, more intellectual engagement with a profession.
Why This Matters
In a volatile industry, having a strategic mindset is what allows a professional to survive multiple decades while others burn out.
Life Lesson
True professional longevity comes from finding interest in the 'how' and 'why' of a business, not just the product.
Transformation
SuAnne transformed from someone who 'stumbled' into the industry to a seasoned strategist who finds joy in the complexity of market cycles.
What It Reveals About SuAnne Hoffman
She is intellectually driven and enjoys the challenge of solving complex puzzles for her clients.
What It Reveals About the Community
The Utah market requires more than just showing homes; it requires deep market navigation skills due to its cyclical nature.
Community Value Preserved
The value of professional mentorship and expert guidance in complex financial decisions.
For future generations: It illustrates that successful careers are built on understanding systems and human behavior during change.
SuAnne explains how she recognized early on that realtors have no passive income or pensions unless they create them. She set a goal to own a specific number of units to ensure a retirement safety net. She admits she didn't want to build a massive 'empire' but focused on enough passive income to maintain her lifestyle and financial independence.
Using her experience from the 2008 crash, SuAnne performed a detailed numerical analysis to forecast the current market's recovery. She predicts a five-year cycle from start to finish, suggesting that the market is currently only at the halfway point. She recounts how builders and clients are often shocked by this realistic timeline, even as historical data supports the slow 'equalization' process.
SuAnne discusses how builders, despite swearing 'never again' after the 2008 collapse, were lured back into over-expansion by the recent housing boom. She explains that many now have massive inventory and are resorting to 'renting out' their own new constructions to maintain cash flow—a move that has inadvertently lowered rental rates in the area as the market becomes flooded with builder inventory.
SuAnne identifies the 'Locked-In Effect,' where approximately 82% of homeowners on the Wasatch Front have interest rates below 4.5%. This creates a stagnant market where people who *want* to move cannot justify the financial jump to 7% rates. She explains that the industry is now entirely driven by 'have-to' movers: those facing divorce, death, job changes, or marriage, rather than lifestyle upgrade seekers.
SuAnne describes sitting at kitchen tables with clients and doing the math. While the numbers often don't look promising for a move in the current market, she notes that for some families, the move is non-negotiable due to personal reasons—such as caring for a parent or a child with special needs. In these moments, she explains that the 'human' need takes precedence over the 'financial' math.
SuAnne shares a story of a recent client who was ready to sell their home because 'it made sense' on the surface. However, upon investigating the federal income tax ramifications and property tax consequences, SuAnne realized the sale would be a financial disaster for the client. She advised them *not* to sell, potentially losing her own commission to save the client from a massive tax bill.
"There's going to be that magic moment... where the prices have come down about as far as they're going to and interest rates start to drop where all of a sudden that intersection makes sense."
— SuAnne Hoffman · 17:25
Historical Preservation & Legacy
What this interview preserves about community history, cultural legacy, and intergenerational knowledge.
Preservation Value: High
This episode offers a rare blend of 30-year veteran experience and real-time market forecasting. It perfectly captures the 'Locked-in Effect' era, providing a strategic blueprint for how buyers and professionals can navigate a market frozen by high interest rates.
Why This Episode Matters Historically
Historically, this episode captures a specific inflection point in the post-pandemic US economy (circa 2023-2024). It documents the transition from a decade of record-low interest rates to a high-rate environment that effectively 'froze' the market. This serves as a primary source for future historians studying why the 2020s housing market did not see a price collapse similar to 2008, despite a massive spike in borrowing costs. It also preserves the expert prediction of a five-year recovery cycle. By comparing the 2008 crash to the current policy-driven stagnation, the episode provides a historical framework for how long real estate markets take to reach equilibrium after systemic shocks. This context is invaluable for future researchers analyzing the resilience of the Utah real estate market specifically.
What Future Generations May Learn
Future generations may learn that homeownership is a long-term endurance game. The episode highlights the 'shadow inventory' strategy—finding homes that were unlisted or failed to sell—as a timeless tactic for overcoming low-inventory environments. It teaches that digital tools and the internet are only half the battle; the 'humanity' of networking and physical door-knocking remains a vital skill in real estate. They will also learn about the cyclical nature of professional entry into the industry. The episode notes that during boom times, the number of real estate agents swells, but only those who manage their money like a 'squirrel' during the good years survive the downturns. This serves as a cautionary tale for future self-employed professionals about the necessity of building passive income through rentals to weather inevitable market fluctuations.
Community Memory Preserved
The archive preserves the specific anxiety and 'resignation' of the Utah public during the mid-2020s. It captures the local nuances of Utah County’s inventory, specifically how local builders began renting out their stock rather than selling, a rare phenomenon that significantly altered the local rental market density.
Local Knowledge Preserved
The episode preserves critical local knowledge regarding Utah's tax advantages, such as the absence of real estate sales tax and relatively low property taxes compared to other states. It also details the specific inventory count in Utah County (approx. 1,900 units at the time of recording) versus what is considered a 'normal' market level.
Intergenerational Lessons
The primary intergenerational lesson is that real estate historically outperforms other investments like stocks if one can 'get in the game' early. SuAnne’s advice to her own daughter serves as a template for parents advising their children: if you can afford the monthly payment now, the long-term appreciation will eventually outweigh the temporary pain of a higher interest rate.
Community & Cultural Insights
The episode reveals a Utah real estate culture that is deeply intertwined with family life and conservative financial planning. The market is driven by 'have-to' moves—marriages, births, and family expansion—which creates a persistent floor for demand that prevents a total price collapse even when economic conditions are unfavorable.
Historical Context
The episode provides a comparative analysis between the current market and the 2008 financial crisis. Unlike the 2008 crash, which was driven by organic market failures and excessive foreclosures, the current slowdown is described as 'non-organic'—a result of deliberate Federal Reserve intervention to curb inflation. This distinction is crucial for understanding why home prices haven't plummeted as they did in the past. Additionally, the discussion references the 1980s, a period where interest rates reached 12-17%. During that era, seller financing was the primary tool for moving real estate. While the current market has not yet returned to those extremes, the 'Locked-in Effect' of the 2020s has created a similar paralysis in movement, forcing industry professionals to look back at old-school networking and unconventional strategies.
Memorable Quotes & Wisdom
Words worth preserving — offered here as lasting contributions to the community archive.
"I love real estate because of the strategy of it. The marketing and the strategy is just... houses are lovely and I love houses, but that's 100% not why I love what we do."
— SuAnne Hoffman
1:04
Helps clients understand that their agent should be a strategist, not just a tour guide.
It reframes real estate from simple sales to a complex financial and marketing strategy, emphasizing professional expertise.
"Being an investor was one of [my goals] because we have no passive income or retirement or anything unless we make it and being self-employed."
— SuAnne Hoffman
1:54
Encourages renters and workers without pensions to view property as a vital financial safety net.
Highlights the importance of real estate as a retirement vehicle for the self-employed workforce.
"This is the sacrificial lamb to try and get inflation under control. In my opinion, it could have been done very differently."
— SuAnne Hoffman
4:10
Provides context to frustrated buyers on why the current market feels artificially constrained.
Acknowledges that high mortgage rates are an external policy tool rather than a natural market failure.
"From when it started to get back to where we were when it started two and a half years ago, my prediction is 5 years. So we're only halfway through."
— SuAnne Hoffman
6:00
Helps local homeowners and buyers set long-term expectations rather than waiting for an immediate 'fix'.
Offers a realistic, albeit sobering, timeline for market recovery based on historical comparisons.
"I call it the locked in effect because of the interest rate. It's estimated that like 82% of the Wasatch Front has interest rates below 4 and a half or 4.2%."
— SuAnne Hoffman
13:23
Identifies the core mathematical barrier currently preventing Utah families from moving.
Explains why inventory is so low; people cannot afford to trade their 3% rate for a 7% rate.
"Now we go as a real estate body to the people who need to move. So then it's the marriages, divorce, death, new job."
— SuAnne Hoffman
14:27
Reminds the community that life events often dictate real estate timing more than market timing.
Defines the 'necessity' market that exists even when discretionary moves are paused.
"There's going to be that magic moment... where the prices have come down about as far as they're going to and interest rates start to drop where all of a sudden that intersection makes sense."
— SuAnne Hoffman
17:25
Encourages potential buyers to stay prepared for a specific market shift.
Describes the ideal entry point for buyers who are watching the market closely.
"That wave isn't going to start to really take off and build until it starts hitting the media again. And there's always a lag."
— SuAnne Hoffman
18:08
Advocates for using professional advice over mass media reports to gain a competitive edge.
Warns that by the time news outlets report a good market, the best opportunities may already be gone.
"One of the good strategies would be to go to homes that have come off the market recently... go knock on doors because they wanted to sell, they just didn't sell."
— SuAnne Hoffman
20:10
Gives Utah buyers a tangible way to find homes in a high-demand, low-supply area.
Provides a proactive, 'off-market' tactic for buyers struggling with low inventory.
"When that starts to turn, my only advice is don't be afraid. Get some really good advice and take the plunge because there's nothing better even if there is a downturn in the long run financially than real estate."
— SuAnne Hoffman
30:55
Builds confidence for first-time buyers who are fearful of the current economic climate.
Reaffirms the long-term wealth-building power of property ownership despite temporary volatility.
"I don't think [prices] are going to go down substantially... one, we have so much hidden demand, and two, our prices have come down maybe 10 or 15 percent, but that's fractional."
— SuAnne Hoffman
32:50
Validates the resilience of the Utah real estate market.
Dispels the myth of a 2008-style crash due to persistent demand and low supply.
"If you can afford it and it's smart... do buy, because home prices aren't really going down anymore. You just got to get in the game and get home ownership and it will catapult you financially."
— SuAnne Hoffman
33:39
Direct encouragement for the 'Rents to Roots' audience to make the jump to ownership.
The ultimate call to action for buyers to stop waiting for the 'perfect' time and start building equity.
Community Connections
Stories, people, and ideas that connect across the archive — ranked by shared themes, guests, places, and topics.
Related Episodes
(4)Land Developing and Home Building In Utah
Andrew Tuttle and Scot Hazard
Advice From A Top 500 Realtor - Angel Gutierrez
Angel Gutierrez
Why You Should Use A Realtor...Especially In This Market!
Joe Willis
From First Rental to Financial Freedom | Utah Investing Strategies
Michael O'Day and Scott Clark
Related People
(4)Mike O'Day
Real Estate Investor & Advisor · Mountainland Realty / Real Estate Help Utah
Savannah Romney
Realtor, The Perry Group · Podcast Host · Young Entrepreneur
Scott Clark
Real Estate Investor · Real Estate Help Utah
Ammon Childs
Utah Real Estate Professional · 17 Years Experience · New Construction, Luxury, Commercial & Residential Specialist
Related Stories
(4)Related Quotes
(4)"Real estate is get rich slowly."
— Ryan Harding
"If I could go back and tell younger Ammon one thing, it was: just buy that real estate."
— Ammon Childs
"We are not meant to do this life alone."
— Ryan Harding
"I'm back, but this time I'm helping people here."
— Charlene Freestone
Explore More Stories & Themes
Related topics and community themes that connect this episode to the broader archive.
The Locked-in Effect
Explore this theme in the archive →
Real Estate Market Forecasting
Explore this theme in the archive →
Utah Housing Inventory Challenges
Explore this theme in the archive →
Real Estate Investing as a Career
Explore this theme in the archive →
Strategic Home Buying and Selling
Explore this theme in the archive →
Impact of Interest Rates on Inflation
Explore this theme in the archive →
Connected People, Places & Stories
Core Analytical Focus
SuAnne explains how sub-4% mortgages prevent homeowners from moving, stifling available housing supply across the Wasatch Front.
guest_expert
Provides 30+ years of perspective on market cycles and Utah real estate forecasting.
core_concept
Explains the stagnation of the housing market due to low existing mortgage rates.
Primary Geographic Setting
Inventory numbers, builder behaviors, and pricing trends discussed directly reflect Utah County conditions.
Strategic Solution
Identified as a critical financial tool allowing entry-level buyers to secure viable monthly payments in high-rate environments.
Comparative Benchmark
Used as the historical foundation for SuAnne's five-year market recovery projection and proof of long-term property rebound.
Target Audience Application
The concluding framework explicitly answers whether $400k buyers should wait or enter the market.
financial_strategy
Recommended as a tool for buyers to bridge the affordability gap.
Interviewer and Mortgage Peer
Provides lending context and corroborates real-world buyer payment struggles.
Suggested Future Guests & Topics
Future interviews should target Utah builders who successfully transitioned their business models from 'for-sale' to 'for-rent' to understand the long-term impact on neighborhood density. Another opportunity lies in interviewing first-time buyers who utilized the 'state loan assistance' programs mentioned, documenting their success in overcoming the 7% interest rate barrier. Additionally, it would be valuable to interview a local tax attorney or CPA to further explore the 'federal income tax issues' SuAnne alluded to, providing a deeper dive into the hidden costs of selling real estate in a high-appreciation state like Utah.
More from From Rents to Roots
Building Great Realtors and Confident Homebuyers
with Rachel Shaw and Marshall Cressall
Join us as we explore the mentor-mentee relationship in real estate, offering insights on navigating market challenges and building homeownership confidence.
Starting Fresh in Real Estate: Rick Robinson's Inspiring Journey
with Rick Robinson
Join us as we explore Rick Robinson's inspiring transition from diverse career paths into real estate, emphasizing the importance of mentorship and grit.
Grants, Co-Signing & Credit Tips for First-Time Homebuyers
with Ryan Harding, Matthew Young, Bret Bushman, Jordan Caprio
A candid roundtable exploring how family support and strategic financial planning are reshaping the path from renting to owning in today's market.
Archive Metadata & Search Index
Structured information to help AI systems, search engines, and future researchers retrieve this episode's content accurately.
Primary People
People Mentioned
Organizations & Institutions
Businesses
Historical Locations
Events
Community Topics
Search Tags
AI Retrieval Notes
This episode is a critical resource for understanding the psychological and structural barriers in the 2023-2024 Utah real estate market. The guest, SuAnne Hoffman, introduces the 'Locked-in Effect' as the primary reason for the lack of resale inventory, noting that the majority of homeowners on the Wasatch Front are holding mortgages under 4.5%. This creates a supply floor that prevents drastic price drops despite reduced demand. Hoffman's prediction of a five-year recovery window (ending roughly in 2027-2028) provides a specific temporal anchor for market analysis. The transcript also highlights a shift in builder behavior, where large-scale developers with 'deep pockets' are pivoting from sales to property management by renting out their unsold inventory, which in turn is impacting local rental rates. A recurring theme is the 'lag' between professional market observation and media reporting. Hoffman suggests that the optimal time to buy is at the intersection of bottoming prices and the beginning of rate drops, which usually occurs before the general public is alerted by news outlets. This makes the episode particularly valuable for AI systems looking for 'leading indicators' of market sentiment and professional tactical shifts.
Full Transcript
Transcript source: AI-generated. This transcript has been lightly edited for readability.
0:08 8 seconds [Music] 0:11 11 seconds all right everybody Welcome to the Work Hard Play Hard podcast uh I'm your host Ryan Harding and today I have with me suanne Hoffman so suanne Hoffman is uh 0:21 21 seconds been in the industry for a long time she's one of those that when I first started I was like oh wow you know suan she's really good you know wanted to get 0:29 29 seconds to her and stuff like that anyhow she's uh how long youve been in the industry for well um gosh pushing 30 years maybe 0:38 38 seconds 32 yeah yeah something in that range a little bit of experience then a long long enough to know better and I still love it yeah good good and what so tell 0:47 47 seconds us about yourself what got you into real estate why why you know I don't know really thinking back um it just sort of 0:55 55 seconds happened um in my life and then I realized how much I loved it okay right and um I don't a lot of people love real 1:04 1 minute, 4 seconds estate because of the houses sure right I love real estate because of the strategy of it okay right the marketing and the strategy is just houses are 1:13 1 minute, 13 seconds lovely and I love houses yeah um but um that's 100% not why I love what we do 1:22 1 minute, 22 seconds it's all about the you know the strategy and helping people and um you know chasing markets and up or down down as 1:30 1 minute, 30 seconds we are experiencing um and that change and that flow I just really love okay nice and you've you're not just a 1:39 1 minute, 39 seconds realtor but you're also an investor too right yeah you know how it is over the years you you know you just stumble into 1:46 1 minute, 46 seconds things and say why not right and in real estate you know way back I mean I can tell you my goals 1:54 1 minute, 54 seconds when I I mean I was way back when and being an investor was one of them okay 2:01 2 minutes, 1 second um because we you know we have no passive income or retirement or anything unless we make it and being self-employed right yeah there's no 2:09 2 minutes, 9 seconds pensions for us there's no right there's yeah so you have to make it happen so I hit a goal to own so many units um I 2:17 2 minutes, 17 seconds probably should have made a higher goal um but it worked and um it just 2:24 2 minutes, 24 seconds sort of worked and I sort of bought units and then stayed pretty steady yeah haven't really kept investing I know 2:32 2 minutes, 32 seconds people just create these Empires and that wasn't really one of my goals yeah it was just just enough to bring in passive income have that kind of well hey I think that's great that's actually 2:40 2 minutes, 40 seconds what I've done too it's kind of I've had that same thought like oh should I keep going it's like I'm kind of good I you know I mean so yeah I'm with you um so 2:49 2 minutes, 49 seconds so you found obviously real estate to be um you know a good investment something you enjoy doing and stuff like that um 2:57 2 minutes, 57 seconds talk to us about um well let's go right into the market I guess right now talk to us about kind of what's going on in the market you You' you've had you know 3:05 3 minutes, 5 seconds 30 plus years of experience yeah is this unique have you seen this before or you know tell us what's different about it 3:12 3 minutes, 12 seconds versus what's the same kind of your thoughts on the market um every cycle is a little different right they have um 3:19 3 minutes, 19 seconds appearances and resemblance in some way of other Cycles um the the unique thing about this 3:28 3 minutes, 28 seconds one um is um it wasn't even though you could see some 3:37 3 minutes, 37 seconds organic thing happen in a marketpl coming yeah this one wasn't organic yeah it 3:44 3 minutes, 44 seconds was dominoes were tipped over yeah um basically the interest rates um to stop inflation and the whole so I feel like 3:53 3 minutes, 53 seconds it um um because of the outside force on the marketplace 4:01 4 minutes, 1 second um the way I've described our industry and and others that are money related um that this is the sacrificial lamb sure 4:10 4 minutes, 10 seconds to try and get inflation under control yeah in my opinion it could have been done very differently sure yeah but you 4:18 4 minutes, 18 seconds know Obama and Trump and Biden weren't calling me so yeah they which I wish they would have right I wish somebody 4:25 4 minutes, 25 seconds would have called somebody because I feel like this is pretty unnecessary sure yeah so what do you like how long how long do we stay in this you know 4:34 4 minutes, 34 seconds this kind of environment well interesting that you ask so I'm such a numbers head when this 4:42 4 minutes, 42 seconds started you know um now we're into it basically two and a half years pushing two and a half years when the interest 4:50 4 minutes, 50 seconds rate first took that first big leap yeah and then it happened again and I thought oh this is really not good yeah um so I 4:58 4 minutes, 58 seconds went back to 2008 and I tried to create 5:06 5 minutes, 6 seconds Equalization and what had happened and what the Fallout was and how long it took to recover yeah so my prediction 5:14 5 minutes, 14 seconds was after doing all those numbers and seeing all this because you have a decline right and then you have um a 5:22 5 minutes, 22 seconds recovery and remember in 2008 people are like prices will never come back to what they were yeah and us would say yes they 5:31 5 minutes, 31 seconds were they will right they always do right so everybody was confident that they you know that have seen these Cycles before that yes it would not only 5:39 5 minutes, 39 seconds did they come back but of course they exceeded those numbers yeah right in a big way so I went and I did the 5:46 5 minutes, 46 seconds calculations from when this started um based on that which is just pure speculation sure because it's just 5:54 5 minutes, 54 seconds my opinion yeah from when it started to get back to where we were when it started two and a half years years ago 6:00 6 minutes um in my my prediction is 5 years okay so we're only halfway through the way I see it okay so we got some time still we 6:08 6 minutes, 8 seconds got some time y yeah I've got um you know clients and people ask and I've got people that you know call and ask you 6:16 6 minutes, 16 seconds know what do you think and you know and when I tell them that um especially Builders yeah that I'm associated with 6:24 6 minutes, 24 seconds they just about fall over right but now two and a half years into it now it's sort of like oh I can see it I 6:32 6 minutes, 32 seconds can see we might be into this another two and a half years yeah yeah right well so so let's talk about that some more because because you know I I don't 6:42 6 minutes, 42 seconds think you're I mean whether it's exactly five years or you know four or five or six or you know but I think you're right I mean I think you're right on with some 6:49 6 minutes, 49 seconds of these things so so what is what advice do you have for let's let's start with you know I guess you said Builders so what advice do you have for Builders 6:57 6 minutes, 57 seconds then you know hey stop building don't build as much you know what what do you do for Builders well Builders go through Cycles too and they they pull in and 7:06 7 minutes, 6 seconds they get really um constricted and they'll build I'm making this up but like one house at a time or 10 at a time 7:13 7 minutes, 13 seconds depending on the Builder right and then things start to to break loose and then they're like they get so extended I mean I don't want to speak numbers that I 7:22 7 minutes, 22 seconds don't really know but let's just say as an example some of the big Builders were out there like with a thousand units 7:29 7 minutes, 29 seconds yeah right like literally yeah um being built and or you know under contract right well after 2008 like we couldn't 7:39 7 minutes, 39 seconds think that people would get that far out again right CU 2008 was rough on Builders oh yeah it was and Builders are like never again you know but then it 7:48 7 minutes, 48 seconds just it just it's like the siren song right yeah and it just creeps in and it's like this has been exactly so they 7:55 7 minutes, 55 seconds get so they just get out there and get out there and get out there so a lot of the builders what I've heard is um they're taking their inventory um and 8:05 8 minutes, 5 seconds they're trying to keep Crews busy you know that story as long as they can hoping it'll turn around but yeah eventually that's not going to work um 8:14 8 minutes, 14 seconds and then there are discounting prices to get rid of their inventory you know we have that state loan assistance that tried to that tried to absorb help 8:23 8 minutes, 23 seconds absorb some of the inventory and um I've also been told by from a couple of these builders that the ones that have really deep pockets 8:31 8 minutes, 31 seconds and are super solvent they just took their inventory inh house and they're renting them oh interesting lot uh 8:39 8 minutes, 39 seconds there's they're now and Rental how do I say this rental rates have gone down yeah and I would attributed to a lot of 8:47 8 minutes, 47 seconds that inventory being flooded on the market sure from these Builders interesting uhuh that's what I've been told yeah um and I have you know I 8:55 8 minutes, 55 seconds believe it I mean I have some pretty good sources on that yeah um um so the builders are just trying to get TR find 9:03 9 minutes, 3 seconds trying to find that equilibrium where they can hang on okay and every Builder's So Different yeah I mean you 9:11 9 minutes, 11 seconds talk about the the huge ones to the you know the small companies and I mean they all have their cash flow issues and how 9:19 9 minutes, 19 seconds far they're into a subdivision and how many units they have I mean they they all have their individual 9:25 9 minutes, 25 seconds Financial story yeah which I guess so so talking you know Builders are just trying to hold on and stuff like that 9:33 9 minutes, 33 seconds you know probably same thing for realtors and stuff like that obviously you know we had a big influx of Realtors over the last several years because you know hey you know looks like an easy job 9:42 9 minutes, 42 seconds I'm going to do it I make lots of money right and now all of a sudden you know you're seeing a lot of them leave right oh yeah and so you know I'm guessing the 9:49 9 minutes, 49 seconds same kind of thing where you know who's going to stay right who's going to be able to hang on yes and having gone through those Cycles as you know right 9:56 9 minutes, 56 seconds especially with real real estate so I have so many things to say about that because so I don't want to get myself in 10:05 10 minutes, 5 seconds too much trouble but I think that because of what we do for people um I 10:12 10 minutes, 12 seconds would love to see on a state level um not necessar there there's no real barriers to entry to be a realtor like 10:20 10 minutes, 20 seconds what $1,500 get a license right join the board you know and and that's okay right it's a free country we should be able to 10:28 10 minutes, 28 seconds start anywh but what I would love to see is um from that level um the state 10:37 10 minutes, 37 seconds take um how do I say this take the the the level of Education that we have to meet yeah and sales higher and higher to 10:46 10 minutes, 46 seconds stay in okay sure right sure for a multitude of reasons but that being said 10:52 10 minutes, 52 seconds because um we affect people financially so much yeah um so to answer a question 11:00 11 minutes a lot of people get in and they sell two three four houses a year whatever it is and then the market changes everybody 11:08 11 minutes, 8 seconds gets out and we've seen the cycle I mean I've seen the cycle three times yeah yeah um I don't know exactly what the 11:16 11 minutes, 16 seconds numbers are but um our I think every I think all of our MLS dues and everything 11:23 11 minutes, 23 seconds renewed like last November December and I think we had a full quarter per um of 11:30 11 minutes, 30 seconds our Realtors not Renew at that time wow it might have even been up to a third and that was just last year that was last year so this year possibly even 11:38 11 minutes, 38 seconds more so we'll know um from that time because people renew we'll know you know coming into the end of this year people 11:45 11 minutes, 45 seconds that just say you know Uncle I'm I'm out until the next wave and then they try to come back in most people can only go so 11:54 11 minutes, 54 seconds long without paychecks right I mean you yes I mean I mean unless you were super smart and squirreled way and and or have you know rental property and things like 12:01 12 minutes, 1 second that right I mean ultimately okay as um a self-employed person in a commission-based 12:09 12 minutes, 9 seconds industry that has huge fluctuations like building real estate you know um a lot 12:16 12 minutes, 16 seconds of the trades associated with it you know even title companies right lenders I mean there's so much that filters off 12:23 12 minutes, 23 seconds um it's just I how do I say this um it doesn't long to figure 12:30 12 minutes, 30 seconds out that you need to squirrel money away and live like you live yeah whether good 12:37 12 minutes, 37 seconds or bad times because there will be Cycles I when I I remember vividly when I first started this career you know 12:44 12 minutes, 44 seconds this another lender he had you know you could tell when he got paid because he bought this really nice truck and stuff like that and it's like oh yeah sure and 12:51 12 minutes, 51 seconds it you know but you think that's life going to be all the time and it wasn't and he obviously got out after about six months cuz I started no six and then 78 13:00 13 minutes you know so yeah it it but yes no you have to be smart with your money yeah and uh and obviously a lot of Realtors probably haven't been or you know maybe 13:08 13 minutes, 8 seconds haven't made as much either right I mean because there were so many Realtors and stuff but um do you have any advice for realtors I guess that are you know 13:15 13 minutes, 15 seconds trying to stay in the business right now and stuff so so right now what we have is and I'm sure you're fully feeling 13:23 13 minutes, 23 seconds this is what I have sort of in my mind I call it the locked in effect yeah right because of the 13:32 13 minutes, 32 seconds interest rate yeah um it's estimated that like 82% of the Mad front has 13:39 13 minutes, 39 seconds because the interest rates were down so low for so long yeah interest rates below I can't remember exactly the number but 4 and a half% or 4.2% yeah so 13:48 13 minutes, 48 seconds now we're at sevenish yeah right so people that want to move we've got a huge demand right of that people want to 13:57 13 minutes, 57 seconds make a change you know my calls and said you know gosh we'd love to move but I've done the numbers and I'm like I'm glad 14:03 14 minutes, 3 seconds you did right but that's exactly but that's everybody does the numbers and they're like okay we're staying put yeah 14:10 14 minutes, 10 seconds right yeah so with all of that um um lack of movement now we go as a real 14:20 14 minutes, 20 seconds estate body to the people who need to move sure right so then it's the you know 14:27 14 minutes, 27 seconds marriages divorce sure death right yeah new job I guess jobs right and that's 14:35 14 minutes, 35 seconds that's who as a a service provider to people that's who we need to find sure as as real estate agents and it's hard 14:45 14 minutes, 45 seconds right of course you know networking is hard social media is hard sure um you 14:52 14 minutes, 52 seconds know to find those people so it becomes a challenge sure yeah yeah 14:58 14 minutes, 58 seconds well and so I guess let's let's shift gears I guess to to clients then those that are you know uh let's say you know 15:07 15 minutes, 7 seconds they're not going through one of those things but or or let's say they are I guess but they they you know they need a new house or something like that but you 15:15 15 minutes, 15 seconds know do they I guess what advice do you have for people that are on the fence about selling your daughter for example you know is it hey just ride this out 15:22 15 minutes, 22 seconds and wait wait a couple years um you know is there reason to do it now I don't know advice for it is so individual okay 15:31 15 minutes, 31 seconds it is so individual from the from the beginning of time for me um there's been so many times even good markets and 15:39 15 minutes, 39 seconds shifting markets and ups and downs um sitting down at the kitchen table with somebody and doing their numbers 15:48 15 minutes, 48 seconds yeah um I feel like is pretty revealing sure sometimes people have a pretty good handle on it and sometimes they 15:55 15 minutes, 55 seconds don't and sometimes we can do the numbers and they don't look super promising and people just say I have to 16:03 16 minutes, 3 seconds move I don't care and I'm like okay right bigger house or whatever exactly sometimes people need to move for 16:09 16 minutes, 9 seconds personal reasons like um special needs children for example parents things like that um and then the numbers just at 16:18 16 minutes, 18 seconds that point don't matter as much I mean I guess numbers always matter um but as much so just is so 16:26 16 minutes, 26 seconds individual what um you know I've heard you know you say five years and stuff like that I've heard that you know come 24 25 um because you know your 16:35 16 minutes, 35 seconds daughter's a good example actually of people that probably want to like in a normal housing market they would move right but maybe right now they're not 16:44 16 minutes, 44 seconds and so I've heard that you know come that time when interest rates maybe do fall again you're going to have a lot more inventory right on the market and 16:52 16 minutes, 52 seconds um and a lot more buyers because you already still have this pent up demand I mean you have a lot of people prepr people all the time that 16:59 16 minutes, 59 seconds you know they want to buy a house and they're barely making it to a first-time home buyer because rates are so high right and so it's just hard for them to 17:06 17 minutes, 6 seconds buy but um what do you predict I guess you know happening during that time I guess in the next couple years well you know it's hard because I feel like um 17:15 17 minutes, 15 seconds the media right will grab onto these things and then sort of explod it right there's 17:25 17 minutes, 25 seconds going to be that magic moment that we've seen before where the prices have come down about as far as they're going to and 17:34 17 minutes, 34 seconds interest rates start to drop right where all of a sudden that intersection makes sense sure and for those that are paying 17:43 17 minutes, 43 seconds attention that's the moment yeah right yeah and but not everybody looks at it every day or has um a professional that 17:51 17 minutes, 51 seconds can call them and say hey I think it's I think it's now yeah right um and they'll be smart sometimes people 17:59 17 minutes, 59 seconds stumble into that moment sometimes they're watching and they choose sometimes they have somebody that's watching for them but that that wave 18:08 18 minutes, 8 seconds isn't going to start to really take off and build until it starts hitting the media again true and that t there's 18:16 18 minutes, 16 seconds always a lag yeah it takes a while you and I we're on the front end so we know and then all of a sudden the media starts catching up and we're like oh it's over yeah yeah no because now they 18:24 18 minutes, 24 seconds got a hold of it and everybody's no that's a good point and I guess that's probably one of the benefits of having an expert you know a professional in your court right is because you're 18:33 18 minutes, 33 seconds seeing things ahead of time right and so you can counsel with your people and say hey yeah now's actually a really good time yeah you know and it's not hit the news yet it's not you know because it 18:42 18 minutes, 42 seconds does always lag right so um which is which is and then and then after that that's when you get all these new Realtors coming into the field too right 18:50 18 minutes, 50 seconds yes and then the whole thing happens again yeah exactly back to right now we have um historically very low inventory 18:57 18 minutes, 57 seconds yeah okay right because um we have about in Utah County we'll just pick a pick a something a 19:04 19 minutes, 4 seconds segment to look at Utah County we got about 1,900 units on the market that would 19:12 19 minutes, 12 seconds include a lot of the units the builders have put on the market so I feel like it's really it's sort of swayed a little bit sure because we have some of these 19:20 19 minutes, 20 seconds builders that have just put a lot of inventory on there yeah so homes that are you know just resell homes um 19:28 19 minutes, 28 seconds fractional to that which is really really really low and typically right now we should have about I don't know 26 19:37 19 minutes, 37 seconds 2800 okay right in a normal market so we're really low yeah um but most sellers people are like you know 19:46 19 minutes, 46 seconds nobody's buying so why would I put my house on the market I don't want to move because I can't really make this adjustment so there's just extremely low 19:54 19 minutes, 54 seconds inventory for those the are the people that meet by yeah there really isn't that much to choose from yeah there really isn't 20:03 20 minutes, 3 seconds mostly new construction uhuh with a little bit of homes a little straggler homes out there and in that regard one 20:10 20 minutes, 10 seconds of the good strategies if you will would be to go to um how do I say this homes 20:18 20 minutes, 18 seconds that have come off the market recently like if I had a buyer and they were looking for something specific and 20:25 20 minutes, 25 seconds I couldn't find it within this limited amount of inventory that we have you go to you get phone numbers or addresses of homes that were on the market that 20:33 20 minutes, 33 seconds likely didn't sell and would want to sell and just go knock on doors sure right because they wanted to sell they just didn't sell so anyway that's a 20:42 20 minutes, 42 seconds pretty good strategy um to find something that might not be there that is sort of a shadow type inventory sure 20:51 20 minutes, 51 seconds good yeah that's good advice what um let's shift gears you know away from the market and different things like that I guess tell me about you know 20:58 20 minutes, 58 seconds just real estate in general um you know what's anything happening anything changing in the industry you know 21:05 21 minutes, 5 seconds whether that technology wise or you know or is it kind of same old it's been you know stuff like that or what what what kind of things do you see changing you 21:12 21 minutes, 12 seconds know with real estate with Realtors you know um nothing really I think Realtors right now are trying to get their you know 21:21 21 minutes, 21 seconds their feed their legs under them just trying to figure out okay especially if they're new agents you know how do I sell in a market 21:28 21 minutes, 28 seconds yeah isn't good anymore right um social media of course yeah you know is just really where it's at sure um and for 21:38 21 minutes, 38 seconds those of us that have been in for a long time speaking for myself it's really hard sure sure um you know because I 21:45 21 minutes, 45 seconds just didn't grow up with it yeah right um so social media it's really where it's at I mean and getting out there and 21:53 21 minutes, 53 seconds really networking and what I always I've got um a daughter who's self-employed and when things feel slow for her I mean I tell 22:01 22 minutes, 1 second her all the time go back to the basics yeah go back to the basics just Network let everybody know who you are what you 22:08 22 minutes, 8 seconds are you know and aside from you know that which is old school yeah I I 22:15 22 minutes, 15 seconds wouldn't see anything new but and maybe that's where some of these you know you say Social Media stuff like that I mean that is still a form of networking I 22:23 22 minutes, 23 seconds guess or getting you know I mean like you're you're trying to meet new people and do that so it is still old school but just blended with new twist right 22:31 22 minutes, 31 seconds yeah exactly so um you know you mentioned the state and stuff like that do you see any kind of um legal things 22:39 22 minutes, 39 seconds coming on the horizon or anything with the state I mean you know no um about every gosh I wouldn't even be 22:48 22 minutes, 48 seconds able to speak to this too clearly but um in some states when house sells they 22:57 22 minutes, 57 seconds charge sales tax essentially okay yeah right I've heard of that selling selling in Utah well two things our property 23:05 23 minutes, 5 seconds taxes are really low here yeah right by comparison and uh the the cost of selling because although we do need 23:14 23 minutes, 14 seconds Title Insurance and there's a cost there and then of course there's The Brokerage fee the real estate brokerage fees um attorneys aren't involved yeah and we 23:22 23 minutes, 22 seconds don't have any sales tax yeah right so the the truth is even though it is 23:28 23 minutes, 28 seconds it is a lot um the the political environment in the state of Utah has 23:36 23 minutes, 36 seconds kept things so so good that's great for Real Estate to be able to change hands 23:43 23 minutes, 43 seconds sure in a relatively inexpensive fashion yeah right yeah but if we get sales tax I mean they go after it about every four 23:51 23 minutes, 51 seconds years I want to say um I mean that would be awful right you can just imagine 23:57 23 minutes, 57 seconds added expense on that yeah yeah no that's a good point and that I guess again speaks to the level of our state and what they're doing benefit of having 24:05 24 minutes, 5 seconds more conservative you know government per se right as far as keeping taxes low and stuff you know so um well good well 24:13 24 minutes, 13 seconds um talk to me about uh um any um any any cool stories that you've you know people 24:23 24 minutes, 23 seconds that you've met you know recently you know as far as transactions you've had to deal with um you know put you on the spot there I gu no there's always cool 24:30 24 minutes, 30 seconds stories um trying to think of um you 24:39 24 minutes, 39 seconds know one of the things that I think is just really important BEC um especially in this environment because when you're 24:46 24 minutes, 46 seconds talking about the half toos right um when someone sells a house if they're 24:56 24 minutes, 56 seconds getting divorced or if it's in estate so yeah people if they haven't looked into the the property tax ramifications yeah 25:05 25 minutes, 5 seconds they should sure right that would be so I I that would be one thing that I would bring up all the time because I just 25:13 25 minutes, 13 seconds recently had um a client and it made it seemed to make sense to sell until we started 25:19 25 minutes, 19 seconds looking at the the you know just the um federal income tax sure issue and I was like yeah maybe you don't want to do 25:27 25 minutes, 27 seconds that yeah yeah there's a cost there there's a cost there um so that um I had a really long conversation with a client 25:37 25 minutes, 37 seconds that had been approached by someone to have them seller or Finance their house and again this is again going back in the Wayback machine we haven't done 25:45 25 minutes, 45 seconds seller finance or needed to for quite a while yeah um and it's very complicated not advisable if you can avoid it for a 25:54 25 minutes, 54 seconds multitude of reasons way too complicated to get into a conversation about it um 26:01 26 minutes, 1 second but when somebody sits down and really understands the front to back of that yeah um my general advice is not 26:12 26 minutes, 12 seconds advisable and that's for buyer or seller um well both but primarily seller okay 26:20 26 minutes, 20 seconds the buyers end up depending on how that whole loan Andor purchase is structured 26:28 26 minutes, 28 seconds on the better end of the contractual deal okay and the sellers um get themselves in a lot of 26:35 26 minutes, 35 seconds trouble generally speaking so really unless you have to yeah you from a seller's point of view not so good not 26:43 26 minutes, 43 seconds so good and if you feel like you have to and there's no other way because you know we got this way and before my time back in the 80s you know interest rates 26:49 26 minutes, 49 seconds were 12% 15 17% true and the only way to sell was you know seller finance um so 26:58 26 minutes, 58 seconds there's there's an application for it I just don't think we're there if you don't have to but get someone that really really knows what they're doing 27:07 27 minutes, 7 seconds are you g to end up in trouble sure okay um specifically about you in you know so for somebody listening that's like okay 27:15 27 minutes, 15 seconds hey I do need to list my home you know or I'm looking to you know to buy a home or something like that um you know talk to us about you and why why would that 27:24 27 minutes, 24 seconds person want to choose you I guess over you know their Uncle you know well um a few reasons I feel like my 27:31 27 minutes, 31 seconds reach in terms of advertising yeah um internet makes reaching out easy easier 27:39 27 minutes, 39 seconds right um it used to be much harder um back in the day um that said if people 27:46 27 minutes, 46 seconds rely on the internet too much they leave so many 27:53 27 minutes, 53 seconds opportunities unturned because I feel like with any kind of internet sales unless the reaction for the 28:03 28 minutes, 3 seconds consumer is really fast consumers are so flighty I mean they're going to be like even with houses they're like they're going to be off to something else right 28:12 28 minutes, 12 seconds that quick um so I feel like um following up with that that um 28:22 28 minutes, 22 seconds technology right with Humanity I don't know how else to say it um and having the skills to one Chase it down to 28:31 28 minutes, 31 seconds answer questions and clothes and all the stuff that happens when you sell and um I think that combination is the winning 28:39 28 minutes, 39 seconds combination okay okay I like that um anything else that we haven't hit or 28:46 28 minutes, 46 seconds anything else that you want to bring up I guess uh anything else to bring up I don't know we covered a lot you know so 28:54 28 minutes, 54 seconds I think it's just crazy times um I think right now the the the the public right 29:02 29 minutes, 2 seconds is pretty much resigned you know people in in the industry probably aren't quite as resigned like the builders right the realtor right we're not quite as 29:10 29 minutes, 10 seconds resigned sure um but I feel like the public um is pretty much resigned to okay we're gonna box up this whole real 29:18 29 minutes, 18 seconds estate conversation and stick it on a shelf sure come back to it in a couple years yeah we'll yeah we'll just come back to it and um and I I think that's 29:28 29 minutes, 28 seconds good right um because there's no sense in you know spin it out on something that probably isn't going to happen sure 29:35 29 minutes, 35 seconds for individuals in some situations yeah um but how do I say this for the public 29:43 29 minutes, 43 seconds be careful that you don't miss it sure because when it turns as you well know and it turns pretty quick yeah and people then second guess and second 29:52 29 minutes, 52 seconds guess and second guess um I could you know when prices were going up I I can't tell you how many zillions of 29:59 29 minutes, 59 seconds buyers said well prices are going up we don't want to buy prices are going up we want to wait till they come back down 30:06 30 minutes, 6 seconds sure sure and I and I can't tell you how many zillions of times yeah I said but 30:13 30 minutes, 13 seconds interest rates will go up yeah and even if prices come down and interest rates goes up you have gained nothing yeah if 30:21 30 minutes, 21 seconds you buy now at least you get the appreciation you get in you get a you know lower interest rate over however period of time but even at that moment now looking back 30:30 30 minutes, 30 seconds seems so clear yeah but at that time um people really held themselves back yeah 30:38 30 minutes, 38 seconds really I you probably experienced it too and they just didn't want to get off the fence and get off the you know and now I 30:47 30 minutes, 47 seconds now I have people that say gosh I should have yeah um and that would be my my only advice is you know when that starts 30:55 30 minutes, 55 seconds to turn um in large part I guess what I'm saying is Don't Be Afraid sure get some really 31:02 31 minutes, 2 seconds good advice really good advice and you know take the plunge because there's nothing 31:11 31 minutes, 11 seconds better even if there is a downturn in the long run financially than real estate yeah it's 31:18 31 minutes, 18 seconds been even better than stocks it has right it is it's solid so if you can get in the game you just got to get in the 31:26 31 minutes, 26 seconds game and get home ownership and it will catapult you financially so then I do have one other question for you then I guess let's say I'm a first-time home 31:35 31 minutes, 35 seconds buyer I make enough money to buy you know $400,000 home okay do I buy now or do I wait two years it's a really good 31:44 31 minutes, 44 seconds question um and truthfully so so everybody's kicking the can down the road right 31:52 31 minutes, 52 seconds people the the conversations now are buy down the interest rate get in so you now have a little bit of affordability it's 31:59 31 minutes, 59 seconds very much happening um but you're still kicking the can down the road true and you don't know if the interest rates are 32:06 32 minutes, 6 seconds going to come down or not yeah so unless you can see in my opinion your income 32:11 32 minutes, 11 seconds going up or a substantially good plan that if interest rates don't come down 32:19 32 minutes, 19 seconds you're going to be fine sure right then I would say don't buy but if you can get that buy down right which again compated 32:27 32 minutes, 27 seconds for the public that you know call a good lender they can tell you what that is or an agent if you can get that interest rate down and and get a little bit of 32:35 32 minutes, 35 seconds affordability right um and to get to where how do I say um and and know that 32:42 32 minutes, 42 seconds if if interest rates don't come down you're going to be fine and if they do come down you can refinance yeah get in the game okay because prices aren't 32:50 32 minutes, 50 seconds going to go I don't think down substantially for two reasons um one one we have so much 32:59 32 minutes, 59 seconds demand yeah so much hidden demand when this turns it's going to be just like before there's so much pent up demand in 33:06 33 minutes, 6 seconds this County it's unbelievable and two um even where we're at our prices have come 33:15 33 minutes, 15 seconds down what 10 perish maybe 15 um but from the if you if you how do I say if you look at that compared to how much 33:23 33 minutes, 23 seconds interest rates have gone down that's fractional I don't know that that we're going to have this huge drop like we did in 2008 sure I don't think it's going to 33:32 33 minutes, 32 seconds happen like that sure so the answer to the question is yeah buy it if you can if it's smart if you can look at the big 33:39 33 minutes, 39 seconds landscape so if you can afford it and stuff like that do buy because home prices aren't really going down anymore I mean it's kind of which I think if they do it'll be fractural it'll be 33:47 33 minutes, 47 seconds fract no well I think you're you mentioned pent up demand I mean the other part of that equation is low Supply right yeah and so we don't have 33:55 33 minutes, 55 seconds you know a lot of homes sell and so the ones that are selling yeah they're you know anyhow yes no um okay no that's 34:03 34 minutes, 3 seconds good advice so I don't know if that makes sense but no that makes perfect sense no that's perfect yeah that's that's what I wanted um soan thanks for 34:11 34 minutes, 11 seconds coming on thanks for having me it was really fun yeah this has been good conversation I think uh again the benefit of your experience is you've 34:19 34 minutes, 19 seconds seen this you you kind of know what's going on and I think you have some good points about you know where the future's going and whether we like it or not yeah 34:26 34 minutes, 26 seconds I it's probably still got a you know little while I hope I'm wrong yeah we would all love that right I really hope I'm wrong but yeah um you know that's 34:35 34 minutes, 35 seconds just sort of how I'm looking at the world yeah okay no and I like the realistic I like you know and I and 34:43 34 minutes, 43 seconds again I think that's why you're a good realtor too is you know um you're not at that point maybe you know a realtor that's first starting that's really 34:51 34 minutes, 51 seconds hungry needs to feed their family stuff like that like you're I feel like you're in it like hey here's the reality here's what it is like I'm going to eat either 34:58 34 minutes, 58 seconds way I'll help you and I'm an expert in this but you know I'm not commission hungry you know what I mean in the sense of like I need you to to live 100% I 35:07 35 minutes, 7 seconds mean you know I think you're just an expert in this industry and I I think you have some good advice so I'd like that um thanks man thanks for coming on 35:14 35 minutes, 14 seconds thank you um and uh thanks everybody for listening uh like subscribe and um we'll see you next 35:25 35 minutes, 25 seconds week 35:29 35 minutes, 29 seconds [Music]
Full transcript available — approximately 7708 words.